早间洞察：2025年8月26日

Morning Insight:August 26, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Coking Coal & Coke:Short-term slightly strong, medium-term correction.Short-term: Frequent coal mine accidents have led to expectations of acontraction in coking coal supply, combined with elevated macrosentiment—such as markets pricing in a preemptive rate cut by the FederalReserve and a soft-landing path, as well as the continued strength ofdomestic stock markets. The resulting expectation gap has caused cokingcoal to oscillate upward. Medium-term: Surveys indicate that end-user production in householdappliances and automobiles has not significantly improved, so demandduring the peak season is likely to be“peak season without beingstrong.”In the phase of off-season expectation feedback, traders are themain demand side; however, during the peak season, they will become thesupply side. This shift in role will put considerable pressure on steeland raw material supply. From a balance sheetperspective, if one wantsto ensure inventories do not increase, the only way is to reduce supply,and the sufficient and necessary condition for this is a decline inprices and compressed profits. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China has unveiled a guideline to accelerate the country's green andlow-carbon transition and strengthen the construction of the nationalcarbon trading market. The guideline is jointly issued by the General Office of the CommunistParty of China Central Committee and the General Office of the StateCouncil. It states that by 2027, the country's carbon trading market willencompass all major industrial sectors, and the national voluntarygreenhouse gas emission reduction trading market will expand to includeall key fields. By 2030, China will have essentially established a national carbontrading market based on a cap-and-trade system with both free and paidallocations. This year will also see the completed construction of anational voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market thatis credible, transparent, standardized, broadly participatory, andaligned with international standards. The country is expected to deliver notable emission reduction results,improve the regulatory framework, and foster a carbon pricing mechanismwith reasonable price levels by then. The guideline calls for expanding the coverage of the national carbontrading market, improving the carbon emission quota allocation system,and strengthening guidance and supervision over regional pilot carbontrading schemes. It also urges efforts to develop the national voluntary greenhouse gasemission reduction market through measures such as enhancing thecoordination of carbon reduction resources, regulating voluntaryemission reduction activities, and promoting the application ofcertified emission reductions. The guideline calls for invigorating the carbon trading market byenriching trading products, expanding market participants, andstrengthening market supervision. The guideline emphasizes strengthening the overall capacity of thecarbon trading market, including improving carbon emission accountingand reporting as well as enhancing the information disclosure system.It also stresses reinforcing policy and legal support and deepeninginternational exchanges and cooperation. (Source: Xinhua) 2. Carbon emissions allowances closed at 34.79 yuan (about 4.89 U.S.dollars) per tonne on Monday, keeping flat as Friday, at GuangzhouEmissions Exchange, the largest local carbon market in China. A total of 30 tonnes of allowances were transacted on Monday with aturnover of 1,007.4 yuan. The allowances, officially known as Guangdong Emissions Allowances(GDEA), are carbon dioxide emissions caps assigned to companies. Firmswhose emissions surpass their share must buy extra quotas fromauthorities or purchase unused quotas on the market from those thatcause less pollution. Since its opening in December 2013, the market has traded 231.94 milliontonnes of GDEA, with a total turnover of 6.74 billion yuan. (Source:Xinhua) 3. Shanghai on Monday rolled out a series of measures to furtherstimulate the property sector, including the removal of purchaserestrictions on suburban homes.The measures will go into effect on Tuesday, according to a circularpublished by six local departments, including the Shanghai housing andurban-rural development commission.According to the statement, there will be no limits on the number ofhomes purchased outside the outer ring road for families with localhousehold registration, as well as those without local householdregistration but with at least one year of social insurance orindividual income tax payment records in the city.Adult single individuals will enjoy the sam