2025年9月26日早间洞察：

Morning Insight:September 26, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Silver:At present,we believe that structural opportunities in preciousmetals outweigh overall drivers: our clear view is that on a monthly scale,silver prices will show significantly greater upward elasticity than gold.Recently,cyclicaldatahasnotperformedpoorly,U.S.inflationexpectations have rebounded again, and risk assets have also shown strength.In addition,silver leasing rates have been relatively high, ETF holdingshaveseen continuous inflows,while LBMA inventories remain low,implyingthat actual tradable inventory is limited. Tight overseas spot availabilitygives silver prices added elasticity. With inventories not dragging silverprices,the rate-cut cycle already underway,and the economy showingresilience, silver isnaturally more prone to the upside. In SHFE silver,watchresistance near 10,800,while the gold-silver ratio continuescorrecting downward below 85. Cotton:Expectations of a bumper new crop and listing pressure are weighingon cotton futures. The market generally anticipates higher production thisyearcompared with last year,while ginning mills show little urgency incompetingfor seed cotton,raising concerns that seed cotton prices maydecline.In addition,textile mills’operating rates are lower than thesame period last year, adding to worries about cotton demand. As a result,withpotentially lower lint costs and uncertain demand prospects,cottonfutures may face significant hedging pressure when the new crop enters themarket in bulk, leading to a weaker performance. Attention shouldbe paid to the actual cost and processing progress of new cotton. In the short term,thelisting pressure of the new crop limits upside momentum in cottonfutures,though relatively high forward basis levels will also cap thedownside. Overall, cotton futures areexpected to trade weakly with a choppybias. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1.China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Thursday that it hasinitiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of carya illinoensisoriginating from Mexico and the United States. The investigation became effective on Thursday, the ministry said in astatement. Evidence has shown that Mexico and the United States have engaged in thedumping of carya illinoensis exports to China, causing substantial harmto China's domestic industry, a spokesperson for the ministry said inresponse to a media query. Chinese authorities will conduct the investigation in accordance with thelaw, fully safeguarding the rights of all stakeholders, and will make anobjective and impartial decision based on the investigation results, thespokesperson said. The probe is expected to conclude by Sept. 25, 2026, with a possible six-month extension under special circumstances, according to theministry.(Source: Xinhua) 2. China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Thursday that it has decidedto initiate an investigation into Mexico's restrictive measures thatconstitute trade and investment barriers against China. The investigation became effective on Thursday, the ministry said in astatement. The restrictive measures to be probed include the Mexican government'splans to raise tariffs on products from China and other non-free tradeagreement partners, as well as its other trade and investmentrestrictions imposed in recent years against China,according to theministry. In the current context of the United States' abuse of tariff hikes, allcountries should jointly oppose all forms of unilateralism andprotectionism, and must not sacrifice the interests of third partiesunder the coercion of others, a spokesperson for theministry said inresponse to a media query. Should Mexico's unilateral acts of imposing additional tariffs beimplemented, even within the framework of the WTO, it will not only harmthe interests of its relevant trading partners including China, but alsoseriously affect the certainty of the country's own business environment,thus undermining enterprises' confidence in investing in Mexico, thespokesperson said, adding that China firmly opposes such acts. The ministry's decision to initiate the investigation aims to resolutelysafeguard the interests of China's relevant industries, according to thespokesperson. The ministry will make an objective and fair ruling based on theinvestigation results, and will take necessary measures in line with theactual situation to resolutely safeguard China's legitimate rights andinterests, the spokesperson said.(Source: Xinhua) 3. The SEA SPIRIT large liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier, which wasindependently designed and built by China, was delivered on Wednesday inthe port city of Dalian, northeast China's Liaoning Provinc