早间洞察：2025年9月2日

Morning Insight:September 2, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： PreciousMetals:Gold and silver rose sharply, especially last Fridaywhen both gold and silver broke above previous highs. As of the latest,COMEX silver reached a high of 41.76 USD/oz, and COMEX gold reached 3,557USD/oz. Previously, we pointed out that Powell’s dovish shift on ratecuts at the Jackson Hole meeting—“downgrading the importance ofinflation, scrapping the 2% average inflation framework, and highlightingthe balance of risks in employment”—moved forward the timing of the goldand silver rally, which we had originally expected to begin afterinflation peaked in September or October. Recently, PCE data met expectations, which further reduced the extent towhich tariffs transmitted into inflation, thereby lifting rate-cutexpectations for this year. Currently, rate-cut expectations for thisyear have risen to 75bp. On the news side, theissue of Fed Governor Cookbeing accused by Trump and asked to resign slightly heightened concernsabout the Fed’s independence. However, in any case, the rate-cut channelhas now opened. This Friday will see the release of August non-farm payroll data, andSeptember 18 will be an important FOMC meeting. Before these criticalpoints, volatility in gold and silver is likely to expand, and afterexpectation-driven trading, a recalibration will follow. In addition,technically, the breakout was the core driver of Friday’s rally, and inour weekly report we clearly pointed out that market sentiment is still in the early launch stage. Caution is needed against a repeat of theMarch 2024 rally. We see gold at 3,600 USD/oz and silver at 45 USD/oz.SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 20.91 tons week-on-week, marking thelargest weekly increase since March 2025; the net long position ratio inthe Shanghai gold market hit a record high—indicating unusual capitalmovements and a surge of long-side capital. According to our tracked goldand silver sentiment indicators, they are currently at-14 and-30; COMEXnon-commercial net longs have diverged sharply from price action; and theexcessreturn of gold relative to U.S. interest rates is near 0—capitalsentiment has only just started and is far from peaking. At present,there is still room, and we continue to be bullish on the directionaltrend in gold and silver. Ferrous Metals:Strong macro expectations have been largely priced in,with valuations facing tests from fundamentals. With the“anti-involution”theme trading and strong macro expectations having beenpushed to a climax earlier, recently the dominant logic of ferrousfutures trading has once again returned to fundamentals. From afundamental perspective, the marginal features of inventories in variouscommodities may have begun to show signs of loosening—for example, theemergence of turning points in coking coal inventories at productionareas and ports, the slow start of iron ore port restocking, and thecontinued accumulation of downstream rebar and coil inventories. Inaddition, the market expects a certain degree of recovery in coal, coke,and steel production in northern China after the parade, and togetherwith the already relatively high hot-metal output, the relatively limitedabsorption capacity in the first half of the upcoming peak demand seasonmay further exacerbate the current inventory contradictions. In the shortterm, fundamentals may constrain the upward drivers of ferrousvaluations, but attention should still be paid to potential upside risksfrom policy. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Chinese stocks closed higher on Monday, with the benchmark ShanghaiComposite Index up 0.46 percent to 3,875.53 points. The Shenzhen Component Index closed 1.05 percent higher at 12,828.95points. The combined turnover of these two indices stood at 2.75 trillion yuan(about 386.9 billion U.S. dollars)--down from 2.8 trillion yuan on theprevious trading day. Shares of innovative-drug makers and memory-chip manufacturers ralliedsharply, while insurance, securities and banking stocks suffered majorlosses. The ChiNext Index, tracking China's Nasdaq-style board of growthenterprises, gained 2.29 percent to close at 2,956.37 points. (Source:Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in