早间洞察：2025年9月24日

Morning Insight:September 24, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Caustic soda:Weak reality suppressing prices. Spot prices of Shandong 32caustic soda remain under pressure, but the optimistic expectation fromalumina production capacity coming online in the future cannot befalsified in the short term. Recently, prices of 50 caustic soda haveinstead risen due to regional arbitrage, with the price spread between 50caustic soda and 32 caustic soda expanding, and manufacturers’ inventorypressure of 50 caustic soda has been greatly relieved. Although thesupport from 50 caustic sodamay limit the room for further short-termspot price declines, the futures market is suppressed by the pressure ofnear-month long positions taking delivery, and may fluctuate at a lowlevel in the short term. From the alumina side, high production and high inventory continue tocompressprofits, and marginal capacity supply in the future may beaffected by profitability. Although there is stocking demand of 5.6million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year toearly next year, subsequent alumina stocking will drive thecirculationof domestic 50 caustic soda resources, but the low-profit situation mayalso lead to a decline in stocking levels at other alumina plants. Beforestocking begins, the market is also unable to determine the gap broughtabout by stocking, so themarket is still trading weak reality.Overall, the current caustic soda market is trading mainly on thepressure of Shandong 32 caustic soda spot. Before alumina stocking beginsahead of commissioning, exports have slightly improved compared with earlier periods, and regional arbitrage between Shandong and South Chinaalso supports the 50 caustic soda market. With bullish and bearishexpectations intertwined and unable to be falsified in the short term,the market may show wide fluctuations. White Sugar:Focus on the impact of super typhoon “Ragasa” on cane areas.Super typhoon “Ragasa” may affect the sugarcane production area inZhanjiang, Guangdong, and may also pose a threat to the core productionarea in Guangxi. At present, sugarcane is in the critical stage ofaccumulating sugar content before harvest. The typhoon may cause canebreakage or lodging, leading to a decline in yield and sugar content, anincrease in production costs, and a temporary reversal of the previouslydownward-driven fundamentals in the market. For the 25/26 crushing season, global sugar production is recovering andincreasing, Brazil’s crushing progress is accelerating, India’s monsoonrainfall is above the long-period average, and the decline in Brazilianexports has triggered concerns in the market about global consumption.Raw sugar prices in New York continue to fall. In the domestic market, CAOC expects domestic sugar production in the25/26 crushing season to increase slightly to 11.2 million tons, importsto remain at 5 million tons, while syrup and premix powder importscontinue to stay at high levels. The marginaldrivers of the domesticmarket are weakening. Treasury Futures:Still maintaining a choppy but bearish outlook,recommending hedging on rallies, seizing opportunities for cash-and-carryarbitrage, or going long on intermonth spread strategies. On Mondayafternoon, the State Council Information Office meeting was more aboutsummarizing past work in the financial sector rather than releasing newinformation. In recent trading days, risk appetite has significantlydeclined, but the bond market has shown no improvement. From theperspective of weekly net long changes, private funds slightly reduced positions while wealth management subsidiaries and foreign investorsslightly increased holdings, showing a divergence between speculative andallocation funds. Looking at September EPMI at first glance, macro month-on-month conditions have shown some recovery, but overall third-quartergrowth performance remains relatively weak. There is still room forpolicy measures going forward, while inflation has warmed marginallymonth-on-month, and policy guidance for medium-to long-term funds toenter the marketis still ongoing. Therefore, the outlook maintainedsince mid-year remains unchanged. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1.China's electricity consumption, a key barometer of economic activity,continued its steady growth in August, according to data from theNational Energy Administration on Tuesday. The country's total power use increased 5 percent year on year to nearly1.02 trillion kilowatt-hours last month, according to the data. A breakdown of the data shows robust growth across various sectors.The primary industry saw a notable 9.7 percent increase in powerconsumption, which totaled 16.4 billion kilowatt-hours. The