晨间洞察：2026年5月12日

Morning Insight:May 12, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Copper:Macro expectations and fundamentals are resonating in the same From a macro perspective, Trump is expected to visit China, and themarket expects the core positives to center around improving trade On the supply side, the Peruvian government has issued an emergencydecree in response to the country’s worsening nationwide energy crisis inorder to safeguard national energy security. Peru’s entry into a state of Tightness in copper raw material supply is not an isolated event.Multiple supply disruptions are currently affecting the copper smelters continue to disrupt global supply chains, increasing the risk ofproduction cuts at smelters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and On the demand side, continued expansion in US AI computing infrastructureremains supportive of copper consumption growth. One key factor to Overall, improving macro risk appetite combined with supply disruptionsand rising demand fundamentals is expected to keep copper prices firm. Naphtha andUpstream Petrochemical Feedstocks:Near-term supply shocks inthe naphtha market continue to pressure the sector, while global naphthacracking margins have started to diverge across regions. As a major In the United States, despite strong summer gasoline cracks, the increasein blending demand has remained limited under the pressure of high-priced its own oversupply conditions. However, the current naphtha supply shockis mainly concentrated in May. As the arbitrage window closes, global Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's logistics sector showed signs of steady recovery in April,with several key indicators improving as industrial and supply chains The index tracking the country's logistics market--an indicator of The new orders index came in at 49.8 percent, rising for a secondstraight month. New orders indices for postal and express delivery, road Profitability in the sector also continued to improve. The logisticsservice price index edged up 0.3 percentage points from a month earlier, The data also points to stable market expectations among enterprises forthe coming period. Last month, the business activity expectations index "Enterprises showed strong willingness to invest in multimodal transportation, smart supply chains, and low-carbon and greenwarehousing, transportation and distribution, as well as in equipment The continued improvement in these indicators points to bettercoordination between upstream and downstream demand, smoother logistics Growth momentum was also sustained across subdivided sectors. China'spostal and express deliveryindustry posted a total business volume index 2. China's moderately loose monetary policy continued to show effects inthe first quarter, with financial aggregates expanding at a reasonable At the end of March, loans to the technology, green development,inclusive finance, elderly-care and digital economy sectors all In the first quarter, the central bank's operations registered a netinjection of about 2 trillion yuan (about 292.11 billion U.S. dollars) in The central bank has improved structural monetary policy tools andfurther optimized the credit structure. At the end of March, outstanding Looking ahead, the central bank said it will continue to implement amoderately loose monetary policy, flexibly use various monetary policy credit supply. It will also make good use of structural monetary policy tools andstrengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic 3. China's production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) postedyear-on-year growth in April, industry data showed on Monday. Of total new car sales in April, NEVs accounted for 53.2 percent, the In the first four months of the year, China's auto production and salestotaled 9.61 million and 9.57 million units, respectively. NEV production During January-April, the country's vehicle exports surged 61.5 percent CAAM deputy secretary-general Chen Shihua said that while auto productionand sales edged down slightly year on year in April, the cumulative Recent policy measureshave sent positive signals that will help boostdomestic auto demand, consolidate foreign trade advantages, and promote Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restri