Morning Insight: March 25, 2026

Morning Insight:March 25, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Fuel Oil & LSFO:Strength pauses as prompt tightness is fully priced;focus shifts to deferred contracts Recent spot market performance in both high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) andlow-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) indicates that prompt cargoes for early Aprilare largely locked in. Spot differentials have continued to soften,reflecting a gradual convergence of pricingtoward fundamentals. Thisalso suggests cautious downstream sentiment, with bullish expectationsfading. As prompt loading schedules across regions become clearer, market focusis expected to shift toward deferred contracts. Looking ahead, on the HSFO side, whether Russia can step in to fill thesupply gap left by the Middle East will be a key supply-side variable. Onthe demand side, attention should be paid to potential shifts in bunkerdemand from Fujairah toward Singapore. For LSFO, the supply gap left by Kuwait will need to be gradually filledby other regions. However, exports from Brazil—a key supplier to theAsia-Pacific market—have declined, suggesting continued downside supportfor overseas LSFO prices. Domestically, if major state-owned refiners further increase throughputwithout raising refined product yields, LSFO output could graduallyrecover. This would help ensure sufficient supply for bonded coastalbunkering and futures deliverables, thereby exerting downward pressure onLU valuations. Lithium carbonate:Futures opened higher and extended gains yesterday,closing at RMB 152,940/tonne, up 6.1%. The move was primarily driven bycontinued market focus on policy disruptions in Zimbabwe. According tomarket reports, Zimbabwe’s lithium export ban has been in place fornearly a month with no indication of easing, and the duration of thedisruption may exceed prior expectations. Chinese enterprises arereportedly still in negotiations with the local government. If noprogress ismade, reduced ore imports are expected to become increasinglyevident from April onward, further tightening upstream supply. In fact, the upstream market remains tight. Processing fees for lithiumore have declined to RMB 18,000–18,500/tonne, while domestic oreinventories are estimated at roughly one month of coverage, suggestingcontinued tightness ahead. On the demand side, although domestic EV sales growth has softened year-on-year, higher battery capacity per vehicle and resilient EV exportsmean overall demand for lithium carbonate remains relatively firm. Themarket is closely watching downstream production schedules for April tobetter assess real demand conditions. In the near term, price action is heavily influenced by news flow andmacro factors. However, tightness in the upstream continues to underpinfundamentals, providing downside support. Strategy: Favor a buy-on-dips approach, while managing elevatedvolatility through options-based hedging. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The People's Bank of China on Tuesday announced that it will carry outa 500-billion-yuan (about 72.52 billion U.S. dollars) one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation on Wednesday, aiming to maintainadequate liquidity in the country's banking system.The central bank said this MLF will be conducted through variable-ratetenders with a fixed quantity, using a multiple-price auction.With a 450-billion-yuan MLF maturing this month, the move will result in a net injection of 50 billion yuan, marking the 13th consecutive month ofnet injection. The MLF was introduced in 2014 to help commercial and policy banksmaintain liquidity by allowing them to borrow from the central bank byusing securities as collateral. (Source: Xinhua) 2.Chinese companies and researchers filed a record 22,031 patentapplications with the European Patent Office (EPO) in 2025, with Chinarising to third place for the first time, the EPO Technology Dashboard2025 showed on Tuesday. The figure marked a year-on-year increase of 9.7 percent and accountedfor 10.9 percent of all applications filed at the EPO, making China thefastest-growing country among the top 10 filing countries, the officesaid in a press release. Digital communication was the field with the highest number of patentapplications from China. Transport and semiconductors were the fastest-growing fields for Chinese filings, with both posting year-on-year growthof more than 30 percent. In terms of company rankings, Chinese tech giant Huawei ranked secondamong all companies filing patent applications at the EPO in 2025, with4,744 applications. Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex TechnologyCo. Ltd (CATL) ranked 10th with 1,305 applications, marking the firsttime that two Chinese companies entered the top 10. In addit