早晨洞察：2025年12月25日

Morning Insight:December 25, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Silver:Silver has experienced heightened volatility recently. After asustained rally that pushed prices to USD 72, the market has seen apullback. We believe the recent acceleration to the upside was driven, onthe one hand, by marginal easing in macro liquidity—particularly as thesharp month-on-month decline in U.S. CPI data significantly liftedexpectations for rate cuts—and, on the other hand, by consecutive limit-up moves in platinum and palladium, which fueled market enthusiasm andaccelerated fund flows into silver. Under the current environment of intense positioning and capital-driventrading, short-term price performance is difficult to gauge. However,even if there is a near-term need for consolidation at elevated levels,the underlying trend for silver has not changed from a fundamentalperspective. Global inventory imbalances remain difficult to resolve, andwith overseas markets entering a holiday period and liquidity thinning,there remains the possibility that these tensions could further intensifyinto 2026.From a cycle perspective, silver may enter a corrective phaseto digest the current overbought sentiment. Nickel:Weak fundamental realities persist, while headline risk andcapital-driven volatility intensify; focus on structural opportunities. Previously, the main trading logic in the market centered on oversupplypressure and expectations for additional hydrometallurgical capacitycoming online. Positions were repeatedly built to probe for a valuationlevel consistent with supply–demand rebalancing. However, repeateddisruptions from Indonesia-related news have undermined short sellers’conviction, with short covering driving a rebound in nickel prices. Oncenickel prices receive further support from Indonesia-related headlines,there may be a risk of catch-up gains. First, the Indonesian government has urged companies to resubmit their2026 RKAB budgets. Public market information suggests that Indonesia mayseek to cut nickel ore quotas to 250 million tonnes. Based on ourestimates, Indonesia’s nickel ore demand for 2024–2026 is approximately250 million, 280 million, and 300 million tonnes, respectively. A quotaof 250 million tonnes could lead to tightness on the mining side,potentially even forcing production cuts at smelters, thereby flippingexpectations of primary nickel oversupply into a shortage and exerting asignificant impact on existing high inventory levels. However, from theperspective of Indonesia’s“downstreaming policy,”an abrupt, across-the-board tightening at the mining end could easily intensify tensionswith downstream foreign-invested smelting enterprises, and the actualimplementation remains to be seen. Second, Indonesia is considering including by-products contained innickel ore, such as cobalt, into its taxation framework. This could raisecosts for both pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical nickel productionby 5%–10%. The actual impact will depend on subsequent details ofIndonesia’s pricing formula. Meanwhile, as positioning and capital-driven trading intensify, it isalso worth paying attention to structural opportunities, including domestic–overseas calendar spreads, as well as arbitrage opportunitiesbetween nickel pig iron and futures prices. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1.The People's Bank of China(PBOC),China's central bank,has said itwillmaintain ample liquidity to ensure that the growth of aggregatefinancing for the real economy and the supply of money align with economicgrowth and price targets. This will also help lower the overall financing costs for the real economy,accordingto a PBOC statement released on Wednesday following the centralbankmonetary policy committee's fourth quarterly meeting,which outlinedthe key directions for future monetary policy. Efforts will be made to strengthen the guiding role of central bank policyrates, improve the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmissionmechanism,leverage the self-regulatory pricing mechanism for marketinterest rates, and enhance the implementation and supervision of interestrate policies, according to the meeting. Work will also be done to strengthen the resilience of the foreign exchangemarket, stabilize market expectations, guard against the risk of exchange-rateovershooting,and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable whilebeing adaptive and maintaining equilibrium, the meeting said. It noted that various structural monetary policy tools should be effectivelyimplemented, and that financial support should be enhanced for the expansion ofdomestic demand,sci-tech innovation,and small and medium-sizedenterprises. (Source: Xinhua) 2.The number of