早晨洞察：2025年12月25日

Morning Insight:December 25, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Silver:Silver has experienced heightened volatility recently. After asustained rally that pushed prices to USD 72, the market has seen a Under the current environment of intense positioning and capital-driventrading, short-term price performance is difficult to gauge. However,even if there is a near-term need for consolidation at elevated levels, Nickel:Weak fundamental realities persist, while headline risk and Previously, the main trading logic in the market centered on oversupplypressure and expectations for additional hydrometallurgical capacity First, the Indonesian government has urged companies to resubmit their2026 RKAB budgets. Public market information suggests that Indonesia mayseek to cut nickel ore quotas to 250 million tonnes. Based on ourestimates, Indonesia’s nickel ore demand for 2024–2026 is approximately Second, Indonesia is considering including by-products contained innickel ore, such as cobalt, into its taxation framework. This could raise Meanwhile, as positioning and capital-driven trading intensify, it is domestic–overseas calendar spreads, as well as arbitrage opportunities Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1.The People's Bank of China(PBOC),China's central bank,has said itwillmaintain ample liquidity to ensure that the growth of aggregate This will also help lower the overall financing costs for the real economy,accordingto a PBOC statement released on Wednesday following the central Efforts will be made to strengthen the guiding role of central bank policyrates, improve the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission Work will also be done to strengthen the resilience of the foreign exchangemarket, stabilize market expectations, guard against the risk of exchange- It noted that various structural monetary policy tools should be effectively ofdomestic demand,sci-tech innovation,and small and medium-sized 2.The number of listed companies on the Chinese domestic stock market TheShanghai stock exchange had 2,296 listed companies as of the end of State-owned holding and non-state-owned holding companies accounted for 27percentand 73 percent,respectively,of these listed firms,with Interms of market capitalization,there were 157 companies each with amarket value exceeding 100 billion yuan (about 14.19 billion U.S. dollars), 3. China's central bank announced on Wednesday that it will conduct a 400-billion-yuan(about 56.76 billion U.S.dollars),one-year medium-term ThePeople's Bank of China said the MLF operation will be conducted by a The MLF was introduced in 2014 to help commercial and policy banks maintainliquidity by allowing them to borrow from the central bank using securities Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks ass