早间洞察：2025年7月25日

Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分participation from traders in cash-and-carry arbitrage. With steel millprofits expanding, restocking demand for coking coal has increased. Ironore supply is recovering steadily; "anti-involution" policies do notdirectly impact iron ore, and the absoluteprice (around $105/ton) isrelatively overvalued. Steel sits between the two in terms of valuation.Mid-term view (1–3 months):Ferrous commodities including coal, coke, steel, and iron ore may facecorrection pressure.Logic: The impact of the "anti-involution" narrative may temporarilysubside. Overall, ferrous valuations are high. High margins mayincentivize supply recovery, and as futures prices decline, the unwindingof cash-and-carry positions could ease spot market liquidity, increasingthe risk of a sell-off.Long-term view (1–3 quarters):Ferrous commodity prices may trend higher again.Logic: Real estate de-stocking begins, new project starts stabilize, andsteel demand no longer acts as a drag. Additionally, improving Westerneconomies could drive a global restocking cycle in manufacturing. As amanufacturing powerhouse, China may passively benefit through exports,boosting ferrous demand and triggering a positive feedback loop.Strategy:The October–January steel spread is approaching a risk-free exit zone—consider gradually taking profits. Maintain positions in the September–January iron ore spread. The hot-rolled coil vs. rebar spread appearsovervalued—look for opportunities to narrow the spread. 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Open InterestChart2:Open Interest of IFSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart4:Open Interest of ICSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000IF2507.CFEIF2509.CFE020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000IC2507.CFEIC2509.CFE Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart 5:Open Interest of IMSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000IM2507.CFEIM2508.CFEIM2509.CFEIM2512.CFE IC2508.CFEIC2512.CFE 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分News Highlights:1. China's central bank on Thursday announced that it will conduct a 400-billion-yuan (about 56.03 billion U.S. dollars), one-year medium-termlending facility (MLF) operation on Friday to maintain ample liquidity inthe country's banking system.The People's Bank of China said the MLF operation will be conducted usinga fixed-quantity, interest-rate-bidding and multiple-price-biddingmethod.With 300 billion yuan of MLF funds maturing in July, the net injectionvia MLF alone will reach 100 billion yuan this month."The move demonstrates policy continuity and would help stabilize marketexpectations," said Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden CreditRating.He believes that with liquidity maintained at an ample level in the firsthalf of the year, China's monetary policy will continue a supportivestance in the second half.The MLF was introduced in 2014 to help commercial and policy banksmaintain liquidity by allowing them to borrow from the central bank usingsecurities as collateral.2. China's locally-administrated state-owned enterprises (SOEs) haveoperated steadily this year despite various challenges, according to theState-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) ofthe State Council, the country's top stateassets regulator.In the first half of this year, China's local SOEs achieved added valueof 3.7 trillion yuan (about 518.32 billion U. S. dollars). Their combinedfixed-asset investment reached 2.7 trillion yuan, official data showed.During the period, research and development spending by local SOEs keptstable growth to reach 265.55 billion yuan. The increased spending cameamid efforts by SOEs to accelerate scientific and technologicalinnovation.During a meeting earlier this year, the SASAC urged all local SOEs to 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分strengthen the scientific and technological innovation capabilities andput in place effective mechanisms to drive innovation as a key task forthis year.In 2024, China's local SOEs achieved combined added value of 7.7 trillionyuan. (Source: Xinhua)3. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, and theMinistry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has jointly issued a guidelineon promoting all-around rural revitalization with strengthened financialservices.The PBOC said in a statement that the guideline was issued to improve therural financial service system, enhance the efficiency of financialresource allocation, and advance rural revitalization with reformmeasures.According to the guideline, more financial resources will be invested inthe key areas of rural revitalization, including enhancing financialsupport for safeguarding food security by increasing credit support tomajor grain-producing regions, enhancing financial services for high-standard farmland and water conservancy projects and strengtheningfinancial support for the development of agriculture's new qualityproductive forces.To