早间洞察：2025年7月23日

Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Polysilicon:With growing expectations for "anti-overcompetition" policies in thephotovoltaic sector, the market has shown notable resilience. Yesterday,anticipation around such policies intensified, and was further amplifiedby a midday announcement from the National Energy Administrationregarding inspections of coal mine overproduction. This triggered a sharprally in coking coal futures, which in turn spurred a limit-up move inpolysilicon futures by the afternoon.From a fundamental perspective, the supply-demand balance for polysiliconremains weak. However, the market is currently giving relatively littleweight to these fundamentals. The recent price increases in polysiliconare being passed downstream to wafer,cell, and module segments. The keyissue now is whether end-user solar power stations will accept the highermodule prices.In the short term, the market is focused on potential announcementsregarding polysilicon capacity restructuring, and expectations for post-acquisition pricing are already being priced in. At this stage,traditional supply-demand logic has been sidelined,and the futuresmarket may continue to reach new highs. Going forward, the timing of thedelivery of polysilicon warehouse receipts will likely serve as a signalfor how much further prices can climb.This week, a photovoltaic industry conference is scheduled, drawingsignificant market attention. Volatility is expected to remain high.Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully and approachthe market with caution. 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Open InterestChart2:Open Interest of IFSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart4:Open Interest of ICSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000IF2507.CFEIF2509.CFE020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000IC2507.CFEIC2509.CFE Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart 5:Open Interest of IMSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000IM2507.CFEIM2508.CFEIM2509.CFEIM2512.CFE IC2508.CFEIC2512.CFE 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分News Highlights:1. China's Hainan Free Trade Port (FTP) is set to launch a pilot programon August 21 this year, enabling overseas investors to access domesticfinancial products offered by local financial institutions.Eligible products will include wealth management products, private assetmanagement products from securities, fund, and futures operators,publicly offered securities investment funds, and insurance assetmanagement products.The program aims to diversify cross-border financial product offeringsand explore new channels for overseas investors to access China'sdomestic market, according to an official with the Hainan branch of thePeople's Bank of China, one of the co-formulators of the rules.It is also expected to attract both domestic and international assetmanagement institutions to operate in Hainan, supporting the developmentof the Hainan FTP, according to the official.As part of its broader economic strategy, China is transforming Hainaninto a Free Trade Port. As the Hainan FTP is set to begin independentcustoms operations by the end of the year, the province is poised tobecome not only a tourist haven but also a pivotal gateway for China'sopening-up drive. (Source: Xinhua)2. Hong Kong's stock market ended higher on Tuesday with the benchmarkHang Seng Index up 0.54 percent to close at 25,130.03 points.The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.39 percent to end at9,075.60 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed 0.38 percent to5,606.83 points.The Hang Seng Index surged past 25,000 points upon opening on Tuesdaymorning, its highest level since February 2022. (Source: Xinhua)3. China's non-banking sector recorded a cross-border capital inflow of127.3 billion U.S. dollars in the first half of 2025, extending the netinflow trend that began in the second half of last year, data from the 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed on Tuesday.During the period, enterprises and individuals in the non-banking sectorregistered a combined cross-border revenue and expenditure of 7.6trillion U.S. dollars, a record high for the same period, according tothe administration. Notably, around 53 percentof cross-border receiptsand payments were denominated in RMB, or Chinese yuan.China's balance of payments remains stable, the administration said,adding that the country's foreign exchange market continues to operatesmoothly and in an orderly manner. (Source: Xinhua)Chart 6:Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar2025/7/30Monthly Report on Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI)Monthly Report on Profit of Industrial EnterprisesAbove the Designated SizeSource:National Bureau of Statistics of China 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Secur