早间洞察：2025年7月15日

Morning Insight:July 15, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium Carbonate:Macro-level disruptions have replaced fundamentals asthe primary driver. After a sharp surge and subsequent pullback, the most active futurescontract rose to a high of 68,360 RMB per ton, a gain of 6.6%, beforesettling at 66,480 RMB per ton. The recent rally was mainly driven bymacro policy developments. On July 7, the Yichun Municipal Bureau ofNatural Resources issued a notice requiring the submission of verifiedreserve reports by September 30 for eight lithium resource mining rightsdue to unauthorized transfers, alterations, or registration extensions.The affected projects represent a combined output of approximately180,000 tons of LCE, accounting for about 10% of global capacity (1.78million tons), 24% of China's total capacity including overseas equityprojects (760,000 tons), and 92% of Jiangxi Province’s total (195,000tons). Given the scale of the projects involved, further observation isneeded to assess actual implementation. Although the current supply and demand situation remains in surplus andinventories are building at a faster pace, macro sentiment is heating up.With the concentrated certificate cancellation period approaching,warehousing and delivery constraints may further intensify, leading toincreased market volatility. It is advisable to remain cautious andmanage position risk carefully. Container Freight Index (Europe Line):Short-term trend remainsmoderately strong and range-bound; light short positions in the Octobercontract (2510) are recommended, with December 2512, February 2602 longpositions as protection. In late July, freight rates have stabilized around $3,350/FEU. For theAugust 2508 contract, the SCFIS index exceeded expectations yesterday,which will likely lead to a minor narrowing of its discount. Lookingahead, as cargo volumes are expected to remain supported through earlyAugust, the pace of freight rate declines may be slow—more pronounceddownward pressure is expected to begin in late August. Under a neutral outlook, we estimate the fair value for the August 2508contract to be in the 2,050–2,100 range. However, delayed vesseldepartures and container rollovers could push final settlement closer tothe 2,100–2,200 range. In a pessimistic scenario, if Maersk adds extrasailings in Week 33, it may engage in price cuts in Weeks 31 and 32 tosecure volume, prompting other carriers to follow suit and driving the2508 settlement down to the 1,950–2,050 range. On the other hand, in anoptimistic case where the OA alliance aggressively raises prices in Weeks31 and 32, the 2508 contract may see a rally of at least 250 points abovespot. For the October 2510 contract, fundamentals continue to support a sell-on-rally strategy. The recent short-term rebound is largely driven bycapital flows, as the market had become overly bearish with concentratedshort positioning. In a context of resilient spot prices and a delayedturning point in price reductions, we cannot rule out another round ofreshuffling among 2510 positions. Strategically, maintain light shortexposure in 2510 while using long positions in 2512 and 2602 asprotection. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's financial authorities on Monday unveiled a catalogue of greenfinance-supported projects, as part of efforts to strengthen greenfinance's role in driving the country's green transition in economic andsocial development and advancing the "Beautiful China" initiative. The 2025 edition of the catalogue, jointly issued by the People's Bank ofChina (PBOC), the National Financial Regulatory Administration and theChina Securities Regulatory Commission, covers projects across a widerange of industries, including energy conservation and carbon reduction,environmental protection, resource recycling, green and low-carbon energytransition, ecological protection and restoration, green infrastructureupgrades, as well as green services and trade. The publication of the catalogue aims to boost liquidity in the greenfinance market, improve the efficiency of green finance asset managementand reduce the costs of assessing green finance-supported projects,according to a statement by the PBOC. The newly released catalogue, which offers guidance and serves as areference for the future issuance of green loans and green bonds, willtake effect on Oct. 1, 2025. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China does not seek to gain an international competitive edge throughcurrency depreciation, Zou Lan, deputy governor of the People's Bank ofChina (PBOC), told a press conference on Monday. Recently, the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields have experiencedincreased volatility, resulting in spillover effects