早间洞察：2025年6月23日

Morning Insight:June 23, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtjas.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen028987@gtjas.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： PVC:Short-Term Fluctuations, Trend Still Under PressureFundamentally, integrated chlor-alkali operations in Northwest Chinaremain profitable, and the high output and high inventory structure ofPVC is difficult to ease. As a result, the market continues to shortchlor-alkali margins. In the short term, caustic soda is facing morepressure, with spot prices under strain. In contrast, PVC is supported byrising ethylene-based production costs, prompting some marketparticipants to take long PVC/short caustic soda positions. The impact ofprofit-taking on this position should be monitored in the coming period.High production levels are unlikely to change in the short term: PVCplant maintenance is below 2023 levels, and high output persists. On onehand, chlor-alkali costs have declined; on the other, the chlor-alkalichain continues to“use alkali to subsidize chlorine,”making large-scale PVC production cuts difficult despite losses. Additionally,significant new capacity is expected to be added, especially in June–July, with approximately 1.1 million tons coming online. The high-outputsituation is unlikely to ease soon. High inventory pressure remains, and export demand provides onlytemporary relief: In 2025, global competition in PVC exports is set tointensify. Although India has postponed the implementation of its BIS PVCimport policy to December 24, 2025, anti-dumping measures are likely tobe announced and implemented in early July, creating uncertainty aroundthe sustainability of PVC exports. On the domestic side, downstream PVC product demand—linked to the real estate sector—remains weak year-on-year, and companies show low willingness to build inventory.Overall, PVC remains fundamentally bearish. Further profit compressionand eventual supply-side production cuts will be necessary to restoresupply-demand balance. Stock Index Futures:Short-Term Consolidation Does Not Alter Medium-TermBullish Trend Last week, the market declined, led by growth sectors. Trading in small-and micro-cap stocks had become crowded, and the market showed signs offear of elevated valuations. At the same time, rising geopoliticaltensions and the lack of new stimulus measures from the Lujiazui Forumcontributed to a dominance of risk-off sentiment. Looking at this week, market movement will still be tied to developmentsin the Iran-Israel situation. However, if tensions escalate further, it’spossible the market may undergo a sentiment reversal—similar to therebound seen during the trade friction episode in April—as pessimismreaches a peak. In terms of the medium-term trend, domestic policy continues to showstrong intent to support the economy. Macroeconomic conditions provide abottom-line safeguard. With falling interest rates and a scarcity ofattractive assets, capital market reforms remain attractive to capital.As such, the medium-term outlook for equities remains constructive.Recent corrections have improved the risk-reward ratio for longpositions, despite valuations still not being cheap. We believe thepullback presents a buying opportunity. Once microstructural tradingimbalances are repaired and external event expectationsstabilize, amarket turnaround may occur. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Chinese leading electric vehicle manufacturer BYD announced onSaturday the official delivery of its fifth vehicle carrier, the BYDXI'AN, in the city of Yizheng, east China's Jiangsu Province, markinganother significant advancement in its global salesand supply chainlayout. With 16 vehicle decks, the 219.9-meter-long, 37.7-meter-wide BYD XI'ANfeatures a service speed of 19 knots and a loading capacity of 9,200vehicles, according to BYD, based in the tech hub of Shenzhen, southChina's Guangdong Province. It utilizes cutting-edge LNG dual-fuel clean propulsion technology,significantly enhancing the vessel's energy efficiency and emissionreduction performance. Previously, BYD has already deployed four vehicle carriers intooperation, transporting China's new energy vehicles to global markets.The deployment of these vessels has significantly enhanced the company'soverseas delivery efficiency, reduced logistics costs and transportcycles, and accelerated BYD's global expansion strategy, the companysaid. (Source: Xinhua) 2. U.S. carmaker Tesla on Friday inked a deal with Chinese partners tobuild a grid-side energy storage station in Shanghai using its Megapackenergy-storage batteries. The deal, with a total investment of 4 billion yuan (about 556 millionU.S. dollars), marked Tesla's expansion into China's burgeoning energystorage market, paving the way for its facility to connect with theco