早晨洞察：2025年8月25日

Morning Insight:August 25, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Overseas Macro:Commentary on Powell’s Speech at the Jackson Hole MeetingFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a key statement onmonetary policy focus at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting,reinforcing the path of“non-recessionary rate cuts.”Powell turneddovish, with greater emphasis in two directions—employment and adjustmentof the monetary policy framework:“The downside risks facing employmentare rising. If these risks materialize, they could quickly manifest inthe form of a surge in layoffs and a continuously rising unemploymentrate.”“The Federal Reserve has adopted a new framework, no longermentioning that the central bank seeks to keep the long-term averageinflation rate at 2%, nor referencing decisions based on employment gapsexceeding the maximum level.” From the perspective of equities, we maintain our June view that globalequities are synchronously favorable. Powell’s stance reinforced the“non-recessionary rate cut”path, which provides some support to globalequities. At present, China and U.S. macro liquidity continues to expand:the U.S. financial conditions index has recently continued to rebound; inJune, China’s liquidity measure (M1 year-on-year–real GDP year-on-year–CPI year-on-year) turned positive for the first time; and recently,active foreign capital inflows turned positive for the first time.From the perspective of U.S. Treasuries, inflation expectations, termpremium, and interest rate outlooks remain relatively divergent in thenear term. Although we continue to maintain a view that U.S. Treasury yields are biased toward the downside, the decline may still be difficultto achieve in one step amid contradictions among various factors.Our core asset judgment remains unchanged: the U.S. dollar is weakening,with near-term support at 97.8–98.2, and medium-term targets of 96.0 and95.3. For U.S. Treasury yields, the 10-year yield has a near-term targetof 4.16%, and the 2-year yield has a near-term target of 3.5%. However,in terms of U.S. Treasury strategy, a short-term steepening curvestrategy is more favorable. We reiterate attention to the 30y–5y curvewith a target of 150bps, and the 10y–2y curve with a target of 65–90bps.For gold, the rebound target is USD 3,500/oz, but we more stronglyrecommend focusing on silver for its elasticity. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Chinese authorities on Saturday began to solicit public opinions on adraft regulation of price-related acts for internet platform companiesto promote the healthy development of the sector. The draft regulation, jointly issued by the National Development andReform Commission (NDRC), the State Administration for MarketRegulation, and the Cyberspace Administration of China, focuses onguiding the operators of the platform economy to set prices independently in accordance with the law, clarifying requirements forprice labeling, and regulating their price competition behaviors. The move aims to establish a transparent and predictable price-relatedregulation mechanism for the sector, said an official from the NDRC,China's top economic planner. The operators of the platform economy are required to clearly indicatethe prices or charging standards for products and services on theirwebsites and related channels, according to the draft regulation, whichnoted that no fees beyond the labeled pricesshould be collected. The draft regulation was formulated in accordance with the country'srelevant laws and regulations, and is expected to help maintain a fairmarket environment and protect the legitimate rights and interests ofplatform economy operators and consumers, theofficial said. The draft is open to public feedback for one month, according to theNDRC. (Source: Xinhua) 2. Chinese authorities have unveiled a set of interim rules tostrengthen the control and management of rare earth mining, smelting andseparation. The interim rules, made public on Friday, were jointly issued by theMinistry of Industry and Information Technology, the NationalDevelopment and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Natural Resources.Taking into account factors including national economic developmentgoals, the country's rare earth reserves and their types, industrydevelopment, ecological protection, and market demand, authorities willset annual quota targets for rare earth mining, smelting and separation,and further allocate these quotas to related firms, according to therules. These firms should conduct mining, smelting and separation activitieswithin the approved quota limits, while strictly complying with laws andadministrative regulations. The rules also specify that rare earth produce