早晨洞察：2025年8月27日

Morning Insight:August 27, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： PX:Short-term oscillation with a slightly strong bias. Do not chase thedirectional long; focus on the 11-1 calendar spread arbitrage (long NOV,short JAN) and long PTA short PX (NOV contracts). Yesterday, the NOVcontract saw a large increase in long positions. The market is payingattention to Zhejiang Petrochemical’s future maintenance plan—originallyscheduled for June–July but postponed; however, the maintenance schedulehas not yet been confirmed. PX spiked higher but then pulled back. On the supply side, PX margins remain high (PXN at USD 264/ton, PX-MXspread at USD 170.5/ton), which has boosted the operating enthusiasm ofexisting units. Fuhai Chuang’s two 800,000-ton PX units have not yetrestarted, with resumption delayed until September. On the demand side, Sanfangxiang’s new PTA unit has recently beencommissioned, and Dushan Energy’s 2.5-million-ton PTA unit is undermaintenance. Polyester demand is gradually recovering during the peakseason, giving raw materials stronger pricing power, shifting into apositive feedback pattern. Short-term bias remains on the strong side. Caustic Soda:Nearby-month warrants and weak exports are suppressing themarket. In the past two days, caustic soda futures prices have pulled back,mainly due to pressure from nearby-month warrants and weak exports.From the warrants perspective, as of August 26, there were still 114warehouse receipts registered under the September contract, mostly from the Zhejiang region. For near-month longs, the delivery burden isrelatively heavy, and there remains the possibility of new warehousereceipts appearing after September. From the export perspective, Vinythai’s new capacity additions and highsupply from Japan and South Korea have kept Southeast Asia well supplied.Export margins have been unable to expand, and recent export signingshave been weak. The price spread between 50% caustic soda and 32% causticsodais relatively weak, leaving little upward drive for caustic soda.From the domestic demand perspective, demand remains stable. Non-aluminademand is improving seasonally, alumina operating rates remain high, andrigid demand support is strong. Toward the end of this year, Guangxi isexpected to commission 3.6 million tons of new alumina capacity. Causticsoda supply in Guangxi is relatively tight, and most of the caustic sodaneeded for tank-truck delivery can only be procured externally. Meanwhile, the flake caustic–liquid caustic price spread is already atits annual high. As a result, subsequent alumina stockpiling will drivecirculation of domestic 50% caustic soda supply, though the key dependson the commissioning pace. In addition, one alumina producer in Shandonghas continued to deliver caustic soda at persistently low volumes, stillbelow its daily consumption rate. Overall, the warrants issue is more of a short-term factor—once theSeptember contract warrants are canceled, market pressure will ease.However, if exports continue to remain weak, the strength of causticsoda’s peak season will be put to the test. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China will achieve key energy development targets for the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025) on schedule, which include overall energyproduction capacity and the share of non-fossil energy, an official saidTuesday. Wang Hongzhi, head of the National Energy Administration, made theremarks at a press conference, highlighting that the country's energysector has achieved breakthroughs and historic accomplishments duringthis period. According to the plan, China aims to bring the annual domestic energyproduction capacity to over 4.6 billion tonnes of standard coal by 2025,and increase the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumptionto around 20 percent. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China has emerged as a global leader in new energy technology andequipment, with its new energy patents accounting for more than 40percent of the world's total, an official said Tuesday.Wang Hongzhi, head of the National Energy Administration, told a pressconference that the country kept breaking world records in key areasduring the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), includingphotovoltaic conversion efficiency and the single-unit capacity ofoffshore wind turbines. The scale of the country's new-type energystorage has also surged to the top position worldwide. (Source: Xinhua) 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or theyuan, weakened 27 pips to 7.1188 against the U.S. dollar Tuesday,according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified