早间洞察：2025年10月27日

Morning Insight:October 27, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Pure benzene:Absolute valuation remains low, but fundamental momentumcontinues to weaken—caution is advised against bottom-fishing in theshort term. At present, pure benzene faces triple pressure: weak downstream demand,poor purchasing appetite, and gradually recovering supply with regionalarbitrage reopening. During the recent decline in benzene prices,downstream profits have continued to be squeezed, end-user demand remainssluggish, and inventories of solid downstream products are rapidlyaccumulating. In the fourth quarter, there are no signs of improvement indemand for now; attention should be paid to whether the easing of theChina–U.S. trade conflict brings marginal increases in actual orders.Under the backdrop of weak end-user demand, downstream buyers show littlewillingness to restock, and current raw material inventories remain atneutral levels—slightly above immediate demand—making short-termrestocking sentiment difficult to improve. After November, moremaintenance operations will resume, and with Shandong market prices nowbelow 5,200 yuan/ton, overall conditions remain weak. Regional arbitragecontinues to channel supply toward East China as logistics windows open.Overall, although the absolute valuation of pure benzene is low, thefundamental drivers remain downward, so short-term bottom-fishing shouldbe approached with caution. Industrial silicon:Warrant destocking provides solid support at thebottom of the market. From a supply and demand perspective, on the supply side, factories inNorthwest China are expected to gradually resume production, which willpartially offset the output reductions at silicon plants in SouthwestChina. However, overall supply is still expected to decline, with amonth-on-month decrease likely beginning in November. On the demand side,polysilicon production schedules will begin to fall in November, whileorganic silicon plants will undergo short-term maintenance. Overall, thefundamentalsshow a state of weak supply and weak demand, with inventoryexpected to build up slightly in November before shifting to destockingfrom December onward. In the short term, however, the continued destocking of futures warrantsprovides some support for the market bottom. If warrant registration doesnot surge beyond expectations, the market’s resilience against furtherdeclines will strengthen. In the near term, the market is likely toremain range-bound—upside limited by hedging pressure, while downsidesupported by warrant destocking. Given that substantial warrant reductionhas occurred following recent declines, a“buy on dips”approach isconsidered more prudent. Going forward, the key focus will be on thenumber of new warrant registrations and the progress of productionresumption at Xinjiang plants. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. A comprehensive report on China's state-owned assets (SOAs) in 2024was submitted on Sunday to the ongoing session of the Standing Committeeof the National People's Congress, the country's top legislature, fordeliberation. By the end of 2024, total assets of non-financial state-owned enterpriseshad reached 401.7 trillion yuan (about 56.6 trillion U.S. dollars), whilethat of state-owned financial enterprises hit 487.9 trillion yuan, according to the report. It also provided details on SOAs held by government agencies and publicinstitutions, as well as state-owned natural resources. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's cumulative installed power generation capacity had reached3.72 billion kilowatts by the end of September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.5 percent, official data showed on Sunday.Solar power generation capacity amounted to 1.13 billion kilowatts by theend of last month, surging 45.7 percent compared to the same period lastyear, according to the National Energy Administration (NEA).Wind power generation capacity reached nearly 582 million kilowatts bythe end of September, rising 21.3 percent year on year, the NEA datarevealed. In the first nine months of 2025, China's major power generationcompanies invested 598.7 billion yuan (about 84.4 billion U.S. dollars)in power generation projects, up 0.6 percent year on year.During the same period, investments in power grid projects totaled 437.8billion yuan--an increase of 9.9 percent year on year, the NEA datashowed. (Source: Xinhua) 3. China saw 48,921 newly established foreign-invested firms in the firstthree quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.2 percent,according to data released Saturday by the Ministry of Commerce.During the same period, the actual foreign direct investment (FDI) inflowtotaled 573.75 billion yuan (80.89 billion U.S. do