早间洞察：2025年10月9日

Morning Insight:October 9, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Copper:Supply disruptions in copper mines have intensified, leading to asharp rise in copper prices. The mudslide incident at Indonesia’s Grasbergmine will further tighten copper supply. Mining operations at the site havebeensuspended since September 8,and repair work may cause significantproductiondelays in Q4 2025 and 2026,with 2026 output estimated to beabout35%lower than pre-incident forecasts.Calculations indicate thatproductionin Q4 2025 will be reduced by around 200,000 tons from theoriginalguidance, while 2026 output will decrease by about 270,000 tons.Thereduction in mine output will transmit to the smelting sector,and aglobalrefined copper supply gap may emerge later.Meanwhile,the ChinaNonferrous Metals IndustryAssociation stated that it has taken the issueof“excessive competition”in copper smelting seriously and has submittedmaterials to relevant national authorities, proposing concrete measures tostrictlycontrol the expansion of smelting capacity.On the demand side,themarket is optimistic about the AI narrative,believing it will bringsubstantiallong-term growth in copper demand and improve investor riskappetite.Overall,the supply-demand imbalance in copper may graduallybecome more pronounced, supporting a long-termupward shift in price levels. Index futures:Maintain a mildly bullish view with a range-bound bias,but there’s no need to be aggressive. We define the current rally as avaluation-driven one fueled by improved risk appetite, rather than byearnings growth. Conditions during the holiday period clearly favored the continuation of the bullish trend—no black swan events occurred, offlinetravel and consumption saw moderate recovery, and there has been anabundance of thematic and sector-related news. These include OpenAI’srelease of its next-generation video generation model, as well as notablegains in base and precious metals. Market expectations for a new round ofAI-led technological revolution and elevated capital expenditure remaindifficult to disprove, supportingcontinued speculative activity inrelated themes. On the other hand, since late August, after increased market activity,regulators have shown heightened risk-awareness, and policymakers’preference for a“slow bull”has become evident. Following excessivespeculation, the risk of policy intervention should not be overlooked. Inaddition, with the October earnings season approaching, market focus willshift toward actual corporate results, putting pressure on companies withinflated valuations and weak fundamentals. Overall, index futures areexpected to trade in a relatively strong yet range-bound manner, butinvestors should refrain from taking overly aggressive positions. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China saw steady growth in consumption during the eight-day NationalDay and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with the "super golden week"spurring diverse spending patterns, official data revealed on Wednesday.Key retail and catering enterprises reported a year-on-year salesincrease of 2.7 percent during the holiday, per data from the Ministry ofCommerce. From Oct. 1 to 7, the passenger traffic of 78 pedestrian streets andbusiness districts monitored by the ministry rose 8.8 percent year on year, and their business revenues grew 6 percent. The holiday saw new spending trends, with green, smart and China-chicproducts gaining significant traction. According to the data, sales ofgreen organic food surged 27.9 percent year on year, while sales of smarthome appliances and China-chic clothing increased 14.3 percent and 14.1percent. This year, the National Day holiday coincided with the Mid-AutumnFestival, extending the public holiday period from Oct. 1 through Oct. 8.Healthier, low-sugar and low-fat mooncakes became a holiday favorite,reflecting a consumer shift toward quality andhealth-oriented choices.Services consumption also gained significant momentum. A slate of high-quality domestic films spurred a movie-going frenzy, with China's holidaybox office exceeding 1.79 billion yuan (252 million U.S. dollars) as of 3p.m. on Wednesday. Various sports events also ignited spectator enthusiasm, boostingspending on catering services, as well as related cultural and creativeproducts. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's foreign exchange reserves totaled 3.3387 trillion U.S. dollarsat the end of September, up by 16.5 billion U.S. dollars, or 0.5 percent,compared to the end of August, official data showed Tuesday.The State Administration of Foreign Exchange attributed the increase tothe combined impact of currency translation and changes in asset prices.In September, the U.S. dollar index experienced mild