早间洞察：2025年10月16日

Morning Insight:October 16, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Ferrous sector:Peak season demand remains weak; attention on theproduction rhythm of electric furnaces. Long-term bottom already in place: 1.The“anti-involution”policy implies potential production cuts forcoking coal, and reduced raw material supply could help reverse theoversupply situation in the ferrous sector. 3.Manufacturing and infrastructure investment have declined somewhatunder the influence of“anti-involution.”To ensure GDP targets are metand avoid falling into a deflationary spiral, demand-side stimulus willneed to strengthen again—policy attention should focus on the FourthPlenary Session and the blueprint of the 15th Five-Year Plan. In terms of timing: demand during the supposed peak season has beenunderwhelming. From a balance-sheet perspective, maintaining inventorystability can only be achieved through reduced supply, the necessarycondition for which is falling prices and compressed margins. Scrap steelused by electric furnaces is a high-cost iron source and represents themarginal supply; thus, attention should be paid to the production cutrhythm of electric furnaces across the industry chain. Copper:Short-term disruptions, but in the long-term there’s stillbullish allocation value. Trade-related news continues to disturb the market, and there areconcerns that high prices in the U.S. may weigh on consumption, puttingpressure on copper prices. However, in the long term, the logic of tightcopper raw material supply remains intact. The mudslide incident at theGrasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to reduce production by about200,000 tons from the original guidance in Q4 2025, and by about 270,000tons in 2026. Production guidance from several other major copper miningcompanies hasalso been revised downward, which may further intensifyfuture copper supply pressure. The reduction in copper mine output will transmit to the smelting sector,and a global refined copper supply gap may emerge later. From specificdata, domestic refined copper production in September declined month-on-month, and there remains marginal downside potential in October. On thedemand side, the market is optimistic about the new energy and AIindustries, which are expected to drive long-term growth in copperdemand. Overall, although short-term price volatility may be significant, thelong-term price center is still likely to move upward, making coppervaluable for buying on dips. PTA:Maintain a long position in the JAN-MAY reverse spread; thedirectional trend remains weak. On the cost side, demand outlook remains sluggish, with crude oil pricesfalling to a five-month low, resulting in weak cost support across thepolyester chain. On the supply and demand front, overall PTA destockingoccurred in October, but mainly in western regions. Supply in East China’s PTA spot market remains ample, and scattered plant maintenance isinsufficient to change the current weak basis situation. The new Phase 4 PTA unit of Xinfengming Dushan Energy is about to startproduction, causing the PTA basis to widen from–65 yuan/ton to–80yuan/ton. As of late September, polyester operating rates rebounded to91.5% (+1%), though filament inventories remain high in October. The U.S. has imposed additional surcharges on Chinese vessels—attention shouldbe paid to its potential impact on textile and apparel export demand. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's General Administration of Customs (GAC) on Wednesday grantedmarket access to 15 categories of food products from 10 countries,including South Africa and Belarus, paving the way for more food productsfrom Belt and Road countries to reach Chinese dining tables at a fasterpace. The move was announced at a conference on the import and export foodsafety cooperation mechanism for Belt and Road countries held inShanghai. In recent years, the food trade has become a new highlight in China'strade with Belt and Road countries. In the first three quarters of thisyear, China's food trade with these countries reached 915.24 billion yuan(about 128.92 billion U.S. dollars), up2.5 percent year on year.Since the establishment of the Import & Export Food Safety CooperationMechanism for the Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2023,notable progress has been achieved, said Sun Meijun, head of the GAC, atthe conference. "Thanks to the green channels for fresh and perishable goods, Thaidurians can now reach Chinese markets within just 13 hours, while Chinesecold-water salmon can arrive in the Indonesian market in only 39 hours,"Sun added. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's Ministry of Finance on Wednesday issued this year's fifthbatch of renminbi-denominated tre