早间洞察：2025年12月16日

Morning Insight:December 16, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Platinum & Palladium:Yesterday, after platinum hit its daily price limitduring the Asian session, it continued to surge strongly and broke above The core drivers of this rally stem from two main dimensions. First, spotsupply–demand imbalances have continued to intensify, showing astructural tight-balance pattern similar to the silver market, triggering Second, current platinum–palladium basis levels and domestic–overseasprice spreads are both at elevated ranges. Funds engaged in futures–spot Going forward, caution is warranted regarding high-level volatility risks Nickel:Weakness in both current fundamentals and expectations continuesto weigh on nickel prices, while medium-to long-term risks fromIndonesian policy warrant caution. Refined nickel is marginally Within the non-ferrous metals sector, whether judged by currentfundamentals or demand-side narrative expectations, nickel isparticularly vulnerable to pressure from underweight or short-positioned Live Hogs:For near-month contracts, the key focus is on warrantdynamics. In the January contract, COFCO has registered 300 warrants; willingness from the industry side remains strong. In winter, if deliveryis made with small-standard hogs, buyers face relatively high additionalreceiving and logistics costs, leading futures pricing to anchor around Survey feedback from multiple channels indicates that disease impacts aregradually spreading. In Shandong, slaughter volumes of small hogs have Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. Cumulative electricity transmitted from northwest China's Xinjiang The transmission program, which began in 2010, has supplied power to 22 Of all electricity exported from the region, 29.6 percent has come from substantial ecological benefits, including a coal consumption reduction Xinjiang--rich in coal, solar and wind resources--has established arobust power grid with five major transmission channels. This To optimize the use of transmission channels, Xinjiang has integratedinto the national unified power market, implementing flexible trading 2. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday announced that it hasauthorized DBS Bank to serve as the renminbi (RMB) clearing bank in DBS Bank is the first Singapore-based bank to be appointed as an RMB A DBS representative said the designation will strengthen the bank'scross-border RMB services, allowing clients to invest in RMB-denominated 3. China's machinery industry has achieved substantial progress inindustrial scale, foreign trade and innovation during the 14th Five-Year The number of machinery enterprises above the designated size rose from92,000 at the end of 2020 to 137,000 by the end of October 2025. average annual rate of 7.1 percent since 2021. From January to Octoberthis year, total foreign trade in machinery goods reached 1.03 trillion Building on its growing industrial clusters, the sector now has 13 Looking ahead to the next five-year plan, Xu Niansha, president of thefederation, said the industry will focus on strengthening the resilience Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opini