早间洞察：2025年12月5日

Morning Insight:December 5, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Ferrous metals:Fundamentals are flat, awaiting macro drivers. The Central Economic Work Conference is scheduled for December 11–12, andwith overseas rate-cut expectations, the macro environment is overall on Iron ore: Steel-mill profits continue to be squeezed, and hot-metaloutput keeps weakening, leading to reduced rigid demand for iron ore. Coking coal: The settlement price for the 2512 coking-coal futurescontract is 969.5 yuan/ton, with a 200-yuan/ton discount to spot for Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank, onThursday said that it will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan (about 141.4 billion The operation will be carried out with a fixed quantity through interest-rate bidding, with winning bids determined at multiple price levels. It Outright reverse repo operations--a tool the central bank introduced inOctober 2024 to manage liquidity in the national banking system--are 2. China's Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday that the Chinesegovernment has given timely approval to all compliant export applications China implements export controls on rare earth-related items in China has been actively making use of general licenses and otherfacilitation measures to promote compliant trade in dual-use items and 3. The city of Yiwu, known as "the world's supermarket," in east China'sZhejiang Province, posted a record import and export value of 701.19 The value has already exceeded the city's full-year total in 2024, with From January to October, Yiwu saw trade with 230 countries and regionsglobally. Among them, 164 saw growth rates exceeding double digits, an Yiwu Customs issued 130,000 China-ASEAN Certificates of Origin during theperiod, with a total value of 2.87 billion U.S. dollars, representing "For example, thermal cups exported from Yiwu can enjoy zero-tariff Data shows that the city exported 5,096 categories of goods in the first10 months, an 11.2 percent increase year on year. Exports of cultural Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are owned by Guotai Junan Futures orare legallyauthorized for use. No individual or institution may use these trademarks, service marks, or logos without the writtenpermission of Guotai