Morning Insight: December 30, 2025

Morning Insight:December 30, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Platinum & Palladium:Prices retreated yesterday. By the close, allplatinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hadhit the daily down limit. In overseas markets, platinum and palladiumcontinued to fall sharply in tandem with silver. The core drivers werecapital flows in European and U.S. markets and risk-off positioning inthe domestic market ahead of the New Year holiday. Previously accumulatedprofits were realized via the overseas liquidity window, while theapproach of the holiday prompted major participants to withdraw part oftheir capital, leading to a correction of the earlier rapid rally andresulting in a technical pullback. From a technical perspective, platinum remains in a relatively healthyformation and has not yet broken the market’s core logic. Palladium,however, has shown a more pronounced pullback, having fallen below the20-day moving average, and with bullish sentiment cooling significantly,there is a risk of further divergence from platinum. At present, platinumand palladiumare unable to move independently from the broader preciousmetals trend; the identification of downside support will depend on thetiming ofa bottoming and rebound in silver. Volatility at elevated levels has intensified markedly, and limitedcapital capacity in these contracts has increased price sensitivity. Ifcapital trends were to reverse abruptly, a waterfall-style correction could be triggered. During the New Year period, overseas markets may seeheightened volatility. Currently, spot market structural tightness existsbut has not tightened further at the margin, ETF inflows remain steady,and there have been no major changesin fundamentals or macro conditions.As such, the previously monitored high-frequency indicators are no longersufficient to pinpoint a precise inflection for a trend reversal. In the near term, attention should be paid to fluctuations in domestic–overseas price spreads and the impact of holiday-related liquiditytightening. Investors are advised to control positions, set strict take-profit and stop-loss levels, and avoid chasing prices at elevated levels. Lithium Carbonate:Weakening off-season demand is competing with strongexpectations, leading to wide short-term volatility in lithium prices.Prices pulled back after an intraday rally yesterday, mainly due to news-driven disturbances. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of theChinaPassenger Car Association, stated that lithium battery demand in early2026 is expected to weaken markedly compared with the fourth quarter ofthis year. At the same time, CATL announced plans to deploy sodium-ionbatteries at scale in 2026, creatinga degree of substitution for lithiumcarbonate demand. From a fundamentals perspective, the industry continues to destock,though the pace has slowed. Five cathode material producers have alreadyannounced maintenance plans for January, and the month-on-month weakeningin off-season demand for January is clear. However, market expectationsfor next year remain broadly positive. Some bullish participants believethat maintenance at cathode plants could help lift cathode processingfees, which would be supportive of upstream lithium salt price increasesover thelonger term. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are currently intertwined and marketpositioning has become more contentious. Going forward, close attentionshould be paid to downstream spot purchasing behavior following any pricepullback. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Xinjiang Oilfield, a major oil production base in northwestern China,has achieved annual carbon dioxide (CO2) storage of over one milliontonnes as of Dec. 28, marking a breakthrough in the country's large-scaleapplication of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)technologies, said China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) on Monday.Located in the Junggar Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Xinjiang Oilfield is the first major oil producer of the People'sRepublic of China. In recent years, the oilfield has explored CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2EOR) methods by capturing emitted CO2 and reinjecting it underground tohelp form concentrated oil banks, sustaining high oil production withlow-carbon approaches. According to Shi Daohan, executive director and Party chief of XinjiangOilfield, one million tonnes of CO2 injected into the oilfield isequivalent to planting nearly nine million trees in terms of carbonstorage. Shi said the oilfield has overcome a series of technical challengesthrough management, technology and industrial innovations. Its annual CO2injection has increased from 126,000 tonnes in 2022 to 1 million tonnesin 2025,