早晨洞察：2025年11月5日

Morning Insight:November 5, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium carbonate:Mine-restart expectations fermenting. The recentpullback in lithium carbonate prices has mainly been driven byexpectations of production resumption at the Jianxiawo mine. At the sametime, the power-battery sector is about to enter its off-season, and onceenergy-storage production reaches full capacity, incremental demand willbe limited and unable to offset the decline in the much larger power-battery demand share. Lithium carbonate will gradually shift fromdestocking to a restocking pattern. Spot trading has improved somewhat asprices have pulled back. In the short term, we expect prices to enter acorrective, choppy phase with increased volatility, without changing thelong-term bullish outlook driven by next year’s surge in energy-storagedemand. MEG:Spot prices have hit new lows, and operating rates at existingplants are rising, keeping supply pressure elevated. Consider selling thefront month and buying the back month on rallies (reverse calendarspread). On the domestic side, the 800kt/year NingboZhoushanPetrochemical MEG unit recently restarted; in coal-based production,Inner Mongolia Jiianyuan’s 260kt unit has restarted, ChemChina’s 300ktunit had a brief shutdown, Yulin Chemical’s 600/1,800kt units willundergo two-month maintenance, Zhengda Kai’s 600kt unit will entermaintenance in mid-to-late November, and Ningbo Fund Energy’s 500kt andChemChina Quanzhou’s 500kt units are scheduled for maintenance in December. On imports, arrivals this week reached 189kt, a high level.Overall, from mid-November onward, MEG supply pressure remainssignificant and port inventories will accelerate their build-up. Eventhough polyester plant operating rates remain high, they are notsufficient to change the current oversupply situation. Prices now need totest the cost line of coal-based units, and the market should watch theoperating behavior of marginal high-cost producers going forward. Live hogs:In October, low spot prices and colder weather boosted normaldemand, while both active and passive butchering-and-storage supportedslaughter volumes. The price spread between lean and heavy hogsencouraged continued secondary fattening entry, leading toa relativelystrong rebound in spot prices. However, the spot price rebound since mid-October is nearing its end. Rising prices have created negative feedbackon normal demand, cutting margins for meat-cutting into negativeterritory, and slaughter volumeshave fallen rapidly, with transactionsstill weak. In addition, according to Yongyi data, pen utilization rates have reachedthe highest levels in recent years for the same period. Although somehedging sales have occurred, the volume is limited. The room forcontinued inventory accumulation has narrowed,and the probability ofshifting to destocking in November has increased. From the perspective ofmajor producers’ supply plans, daily slaughter plans are overall flatcompared with October, while speculative demand is expected to decreasesignificantly. For hogs over 300 jin, the marginal profit from holdingthem back has turned negative. Spot prices are expected to re-enter afluctuating downward stage. Currently, the production cycle is confirmed to be in an expansion phase,hog weights have not declined, and inventories are in a passiveaccumulation stage. Short-term pressure is difficult to ease, and thestrategy of large-scale reverse arbitrage remains. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1.China's service trade maintained steady growth in the first threequarters of the year, with total imports and exports reaching nearly 5.94trillion yuan (about 838 billion U.S. dollars), up 7.6 percent year onyear, the Ministry of Commerce said on Tuesday. Specifically, service exports rose 14.4 percent to over 2.6 trillionyuan, while imports increased 2.8 percent to over 3.33 trillion yuan,according to the ministry's data. The service trade deficit narrowed by238.24 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. Knowledge-intensive services saw continued growth in trade, with importsand exports totaling about 2.27 trillion yuan, up 6.4 percent year onyear. Travel service trade totaled nearly 1.64 trillion yuan, up 8.8 percentfrom a year earlier. Notably, the exports of travel services surged 54.4 percent during theperiod, according to the data.(Source: Xinhua) 2.The People's Bank of China said Tuesday that it will conduct a 700-billion-yuan (about 98.75 billion U.S. dollars) outright reverse repooperation on Nov. 5 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system.The operation will be carried out with a fixed quantity through interest-rate bidding, with winning bids determined at