早晨洞察：2025年11月11日

Morning Insight:November 11, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium Carbonate:Peak-season demand drives significant destocking;short-term strength persists, but long-term pressure remains. The current price rally is mainly demand-driven, supported by both strongactual and expected demand in the energy storage market. According tostatistics from the energy storage and power sectors, energy storageproject bids in October reached 29.4 GWh, up 116% year-on-year but down11.7% month-on-month. Yesterday, the National Development and ReformCommission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) furtheremphasized accelerating energy storage construction and improving thecapacity-based electricity pricing mechanism, reinforcing positive policyexpectations. On the demand side, power batteries are currently in their seasonal peakfrom October to November, with overall demand remaining high. However,the market will soon enter the seasonal off-peak period from Decemberthrough February. On the supply side, production remains elevated, withweekly output rising to 21,534 tons and the industry operating rateimproving to 55%. Australian mines’Q3 production exceeded marketexpectations, with additional capacity and improved recovery rates,suggesting that under high lithium prices, overseas mines will continueto release incremental supply. In addition, a major Jiangxi producer must pay RMB 247 million inadditional mining rights transfer fees, raising the unit production costof lithium carbonate by about RMB 2,864 per ton. This cost increase has already been priced in by the market, but further attention is needed onwhether the plant can resume operations before year-end. Against the backdrop of simultaneous supply and demand growth, lithiumcarbonate will likely continue to see inventory drawdowns in November.Going forward, key factors to monitor include the resumption progress ofJiangxi producers, rising Australian mineoutput, and changes in powerbattery demand during the upcoming off-season. Glass and soda ash:In the short term, their opposite trends maycontinue, but with limited room for further price movement. Recently, the price spread between glass and soda ash has continued toweaken—glass prices keep falling, while soda ash has been rising. Themain reasons are as follows: 1.) The reduction in glass production issmaller than expected, and the room for further cuts within the year islikely limited. The market is already trading on the expectation thatduring the off-season ahead, producers will either reduce production orcut prices; 2.) previously, a large number of long-glass/short-soda-ashpositions were established based on expectations of glass productioncuts. As glass futures prices kept falling, these positions sufferedlosses and were forced to close, driving a clear rebound in soda ashprices; 3.) during the decline, the intermonth spread structure favoredlong-soda-ash/short-glass trades. Currently, the May glass contract has apremium of about 140 yuan/ton over the January contract, while the Maysoda ash contract’s premium over January is only 70 yuan/ton. Thisdifference means the roll cost fornear-month glass longs is much higherthan for soda ash. It should be noted that high soda ash output and inventories have not yetbeen resolved, and spot glass transactions remain relatively stable.Therefore, although soda ash’s short-term rebound and glass’s weaknessmay continue, their medium-term price spread is likely to fluctuate in arange. Considering the unfavorable intermonth structure of glass, even if the degree of oversupply in soda ash exceeds that of glass, glass willstill tend to be weaker during price declines. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China is seeking to drive high-quality economic development byexploring further application scenarios for new technologies andproducts, with the aim of promoting their large-scale industrialapplication and development, and accelerating the development of emergingindustries. At a policy briefing in Beijing on Monday, Li Chunlin, deputy head of theNational Development and Reform Commission, said that scenarios havebecome key innovation resources, defining the term "scenario" as a bridgethat connects technology and industry,and that links research anddevelopment with the market. The briefing was delivered by officials of multiple governmentdepartments and came after the General Office of the State Councilpublicized a related set of guidelines last week. Li said the guidelines have specified efforts to explore and develop newapplication scenarios on five major fronts: the digital economy andartificial intelligence; industrial transformation and upgrading insectors such as