早晨洞察：2025年11月4日

Morning Insight:November 4, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Soda Ash:The trend remains weak. In the short term, due to glassproduction cuts in the Shahe region, there is pressure on rigid demandfor soda ash. What especially needs attention is that the current futuresmarket is an important channel for soda ash to absorb excess productioncapacity, and the glass production cuts in Hebei will make it moredifficult for long positions in the 01 contract to absorb warehousereceipts after taking delivery in the future. In the mid-term, thestubborn problem of high production and high inventories of soda ash hasnot slowed; instead, it is increasing. On the one hand, rigid demand isdeclining, and on the other hand, soda ash supply will further increaselater. Looking ahead, the core focus is on supply-side response measureswithin the soda ash industry. Currently, positive feedback is difficultto form, so the supply side needs to reduce output to cope with pressure;if this does not occur, downward trend pressure will remain. Soybean meal:Focus on returning to U.S. soybean cost-based trading.Since late August, the domestic soybean meal market has entered a“trade-headline trading”phase: the driver has mainly been news of easing U.S.–China and Canada–China relations, and the market has moved lower; thishas been unrelated to fundamentals and has diverged from U.S. soybeans.At the end of October, during the U.S. president’s trip to Asia, relevanttrade agreements were reached (those directly mentioning purchases ofU.S. agricultural products include U.S.–Vietnam and U.S.–Thailand agreements). In terms of soybean trade, the restart of Chineseprocurement and the planning of long-term targets are pragmatic,reasonable, and feasible. This has a substantive bullish impact on U.S.soybeans, U.S. soybean meal, and other U.S. agriculturalproducts, withU.S. soybean prices hitting the highest level in nearly 16 months. Withthe price center of U.S. soybeans continuing to climb, domestic soybeanmeal has seen an oversold rebound and is following cautiously. Goingforward, monitor the implementation of agreements, USDA supply-and-demandreports, and South American weather. From a technical perspective, asU.S. soybeans have risen continuously, be alert to the risk of atechnical pullback. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. XPENG AEROHT, the flying car affiliate of Chinese electric vehiclemaker XPENG, on Monday began trial production at the world's firstintelligent factory for mass-produced flying cars--a milestone in thecommercialization of next-generation transport. Located in the Huangpu district of Guangzhou, the capital of southChina's Guangdong Province, the 120,000-square-meter plant has alreadyrolled out the first detachable electric aircraft of its modular flying car, the "Land Aircraft Carrier." The facility is designed to have an annual production capacity of 10,000detachable aircraft modules, with an initial capacity of 5,000 units. Ithas the largest production capacity of any factory of its kind, and willbe capable of assembling one aircraftevery 30 minutes once fullyoperational. XPENG AEROHT has secured orders for nearly 5,000 flying cars since itsproduct release, and mass production and delivery are scheduled in 2026,the company said. The flying car comprises a six-wheel ground vehicle, referred to as the"mothership," and a detachable electric vertical take-off and landing(eVTOL) aircraft. The eVTOL aircraft offers both automatic and manual flight modes. Itsautomatic mode enables smart route planning, as well as one-touch take-off and landing. At about 5.5 meters in length, the vehicle can be driven on public roadswith a standard licence and parked in regular spaces. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's gross ocean product totaled 7.9 trillion yuan (about 1.11trillion U.S. dollars) in the first three quarters of 2025, which was ayear-on-year increase of 5.6 percent, demonstrating the marine economy'ssteady development momentum. Major traditional marine industries maintained sound development,according to data released by the Ministry of Natural Resources onMonday. The output of marine crude oil increased by 3 percent year onyear, the output of marine natural gas by 17.7 percent, and the output ofmarine aquatic products by 4.8 percent, the data shows. The marine transportation industry saw steady development, and the marinetourism industry maintained its recovery trend. Cruise tourism gainedincreasing popularity, with coastal ports across the country receiving2.05 million cruise passengers, a year-on-year surge of 28 percent. Emerging marine industries accelerated their development, with the newly connected offshore wind power capacity i