早晨洞察：2025年9月4日

Morning Insight:September 4, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Caustic soda:Short-selling is not advisable, the market remains in widefluctuations in the short term. Currently, caustic soda lacks sufficient drivers, with marketexpectations in contention, resulting in broad volatility. The mainbottlenecks to price increases come from exports and alumina. On theexport side, new capacity from Vinythai and high supply from Japan andSouth Korea have kept Southeast Asia well-supplied, preventing exportmargins from expanding. Export orders have not improved, and the 50-gradeto 32-grade price spread remains weak, leaving caustic soda withinsufficient upward momentum. Onthe alumina side, high output and highinventories have continued to compress margins, and marginal capacitysupply may be influenced by profitability going forward. Although thereare expectations of 3.6 million tons of capacity coming online in Guangxiby the end of this year, and 2 million tons from Dongfang Hope at thestart of next year, future alumina stocking will drive the circulation of50-grade caustic soda domestically. However, before stocking begins, itis difficult for the market to see resonance between spot and futures.Overall, at present caustic soda is in an expectations-driven game.Alumina stocking has not yet started, exports have not improved, andupward drivers are lacking, but spot prices also lack downward pressurefor now. In terms of valuation, futures are ata discount to spot, andthe near-month contracts already price in expectations of 32-grade spotdeclines and delivery discounts, thus short-selling is not advisable. Alumina:The AO futures price yesterday broke below the 3,000 mark. Thelatest view is that spot sales pressure is increasing, which may continueto weigh on the AO futures market. However, attention should also be paidto the cost-line support in high-cost production regions. Therefore, AOis currently in a state where the drivers remain biased to the downside,but valuation is testing cost support. As for the latest spot prices, the declines have widened, with Shanxi,Henan, Shandong, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia all lowering pricesacross the board. Forward spot quotations for Australian FOB have alsobeen reduced, narrowing import losses. The decline in spot prices is mainly driven by a relaxation on the supplyside. According to Aladdin, the actual production cuts during themilitary parade period were much smaller than expected, with noparticularly strict control requirements on production, and the impactwas concentrated more on transport ports. Moreover, alumina companieshave recently been maintaining efficient shipments, leading to acontinued rapid build-up in inventories. In terms of trade, alumina exports in July were 229,000 tons and importswere 126,000 tons, maintaining a net export of about 100,000 tons, withno further expansion in scale. The net impact of imports and exports willcontinue to cause some fluctuations in inventory, but the core factorremains domestic supply. At present, supply levels are high, and themarket is also concerned about the commissioning of new capacity projectsby the end of the year. Therefore, the futures market may still face downward pressure, whilealso needing to monitor whether a break below the cost line in high-costregions will trigger supply-side reductions and subsequent transmissioneffects. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1.The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,weakened 19 pips to 7.1108 against the U.S. dollar Wednesday,according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If youare not a professional investor among the clients of Guotai Junan Futures, please do not read, subscribe to, or receive anyrelatedinformation from the Company. This report does not constitute a recommendation for any specific business activities,nor should it be considered as any investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Company does not consider the recipientof this report to be an automatic client of the Company. Please make investment decisions b