早晨洞察：2025年9月22日

Morning Insight:September 22, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Industrial Silicon:In the short term, the market is trading onexpectations of supply-demand improvement. Last Friday, industrialsilicon futures rose sharply, mainly driven by funds pricing in highercoal costs and expectations of downstream polysilicon resumption. On thesupply-demand side, upstream Northwest factories have delayed theirresumption schedules, while downstream polysilicon is also seeing someshort-term resumption. The supply-demand balance in September isrelatively tight. Compared with before, the supply-demand outlook hasimproved, and powder single tender prices have also moved higher. Inaddition, the rise in coking coal futures has provided some support tothe market. However, in terms of upside potential, the current referenceis the hedging levels during the Southwest dry season. If prices riseabove the Southwest dry-season cost, hedging pressure may graduallyemerge, which would limit further gains. Therefore, in the short term,fundamentals are expected to improve, the market remains relativelyresilient against declines, and attention should be paid to the volume ofregistered futures warehouse receipts going forward. Crude Oil:Freight rate surges support interregional spreads, variouslong allocations held with light positions.On the supply side, global crude oil supply faces multiple disruptions.OPEC+ is gradually exiting the production cut agreement, planning to liftan additional 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts starting in October and completing the withdrawal of 2.2 million barrels per day ofcuts one year ahead of schedule, which will increase market supplypressure in the medium to long term. Russian supply has beensignificantly impacted by geopolitical conflicts, as Ukrainian droneattacks shut down 16 refineries. Fuel oil exports rose to 160,000 barrelsper day, while diesel exports fell to a five-year low of 90,000 barrelsper day. Port transport risks (such as the suspension of Primorsk port inthe Baltic Sea) have further heightened supply uncertainty. Non-OPEC+countries are expanding output significantly: U.S. production hit arecord high of 13.58 million barrels per day; Brazil’s exports to Chinaare expected to reach a record 1.2 million barrels per day; Guyana’slight crude is impacting West Africa’s market share. In addition, China’s strategic reserve build slowed, but floating storage increased by 65million barrels. The Brent-Dubai EFS spread narrowed to $0.30 per barrel,reopening the Atlantic-to-East arbitrage window and stimulating eastwardflows of Atlantic crude. On the demand side, regional divergence is evident. Asia’s demand remainsresilient: China’s August processing volume rose 7% year-on-year to 14.94million barrels per day, with agriculture and construction peak seasonsupporting demand; the issuance of 8.33 million tons of refined productexport quotas may ease domestic oversupply. India reduced imports ofRussian crude and shifted to West African and Middle Eastern supplies;Japan and South Korea increased purchases of U.S. Mars crude. Europefaces seasonal demand decline, with autumn refinery maintenancesuppressing light crude demand, but diesel crack spreads strengthened (up$2.02 on the week in Northwest Europe to $28.49 per barrel), reflectingwinter stockpiling demand. U.S. gasoline demand exceeded expectations,with low East Coast inventories supporting prices. Refined product crackspreads diverged, with diesel/jet fuel remaining strong, while gasolinegains were capped by China’s export quotas.Market view and risks: In the short term, unilateral observation is advised, with potential for a corrective rebound of around $5 per barrel. Focus should be on opportunities from widening interregional spreadsdriven by surging freight rates. In the medium to long term, oil pricesface significant downward pressure, with Brent and WTI possibly testing$50 per barrel by year-end or early next year. Core risks include globaleconomic uncertainty, internal OPEC+ disputes triggering a price war,escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and shifts in macro sentiment.Strategically, intermonth spreads (long SC11, short SC12) arerecommended, along with attention to potential reversals in EFS and SC-Dubai spreads. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. East China's Fujian Province on Sunday launched its first "Polar SilkRoad" shipping route to Europe. A container ship, Istanbul Bridge, departed from the Jiangyin Port Areaof Fuzhou Port on Sunday morning and was expected to reach Europe in only19 days via the Arctic route. The new route will connect major Chinese ports, including Qingdao,Dalian, Shanghai and Ningbo, with key European p