早上洞察：2025年8月22日

Morning Insight:August 22, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： U.S. Soybeans:The sharp rise in soybeans stemmed from a news report anda market rumor. On August 21, Reuters reported that, according to twoinformed sources, the Trump administration is expected to rule as earlyas this Friday on the large number of biofuel law waiverapplicationsfiled by small refineries, but will delay a decision on whether torequire large refineries to make up part of the waived quotas. Sourcessaid the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to issueregulations on Friday regarding195 pending small refinery waiverapplications, some of which date back as early as 2016. The ruling willbe a“mixed package,”including some rejections, but will not be acomplete victory for small refineries. The government is expected to release a supplementary rule as early asnext week to solicit public comment on whether large refineries should berequired to make up the waived quotas through a so-called“reallocation”mechanism. This report spurred a sharp rise in soybean oil, which in turndrove soybean prices higher. On August 21, market rumors circulated thatChina was preparing to free up reserve stocks to purchase U.S. soybeans.As a result, while overseas marketsrose, domestic oils and soybean mealprices were noticeably weaker compared with overseas markets. Goingforward, domestic oilseed and meal prices are expected to follow a cost-driven logic, moving passively in line with U.S. soybean prices and basisquotations. Coke and coking coal:After sentiment cooled, the market shifted towardtrading fundamentals, with both coking coal and coke entering a phase ofvolatile correction. The core logic behind the earlier rally lay in the expectation of supplycontraction in coking coal under the anti-involution policy. Since state-owned enterprises and central enterprises account for a relatively highproportion of coking coal supply, it is a typical variety where supply isaffected by policy. Therefore, in the absence of evidence disproving thereal impact of the anti-involution measures, funds chose to trade aheadbased on production-cut expectations. However, the drivers of the recent rally have weakened. On the one hand,the period of intensive policy releases regarding anti-involution haspassed, macro sentiment has cooled, and the DCE has imposed limits oncoking coal positions and raised transaction fees to curb overheatingspeculation. On the other hand, actual supply of coking coal remainsrelatively high, with spot auction prices falling recently, auctionfailure rates increasing, and upstream coal mines beginning to rebuildinventories, all pointing to weakening fundamentals. In addition, withthe parade approaching, most enterprises in Tangshan are scheduled toimplement production cuts starting at the end of the month, weighing oncoking coal demand. As for coke, the seventh round of price hikes is expected to beimplemented today, which would bring spot prices to parity with futures.But as steel inventories continue to build and steel prices fall, steelmills’profits are being passively compressed, reducing their acceptanceof the price hike. Meanwhile, after coking coal prices fell, cost supportfor coke also weakened. It is expected that after sentiment cools, themarket will turn back to trading fundamentals, with both coking coal andcoke undergoing volatile corrections. Copper:Lacking a clear driver, price volatility has narrowed, but thelogic for downside support is relatively clear. On the macro side, the market is waiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech atthe Jackson Hole central bank symposium and guidance on rate-cutexpectations, with investors trading very cautiously. From a fundamentalsperspective, given tight raw material supply and smelting losses,overseas smelters have already been reducing production. At the sametime, the price spread between refined and scrap copper has fallen belowbreakeven, while imports continue to incur losses, indicating thatrecycled copper remains in a tight situation, which may also affectsmelting operations. On the consumption side, China’s theoretical peakdemand season is approaching, and enterprises still show willingness torestock on dips. Domestic inventories are at historically low levels forthis time of year. In Southeast Asia, copper premiums have strengthenedat the margin, whichmay indicate an improvement in regional consumption.In terms of trading strategy, caution is advised in directional trades,though the bias remains slightly bullish. In options, one could considertesting long-volatility positions, as stronger certainty around Fed rate-cut expectations could trigger a rapid increase in volatility. PTA:The directional trend remains relatively strong, with attention onthe Sep–Jan and Oct–Jan spread trades. Yesterday, Hengli Huizhou’s PTAunit experienced an