早上洞察：2025年8月20日

Morning Insight:August 20, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Urea:In the short term, market sentiment is being driven by news, withspeculative activity heating up and prices running relatively strongyesterday. However, given the weakening of the commodity index in theovernight session and the clear policy pressure weighing on urea prices,the market is expected to gradually enter a high-level consolidationpattern with limited upside. Going forward, the main market focus will beon the progress of the China-India negotiations and further developmentsrelated to fertilizers, though no firm conclusions have been reached yet.The key point for verifying the situation will be Indian Prime MinisterModi’s visit to China at the end of August. From a fundamentalperspective, domestic demand remains weak in the short term. In northernregions, the agricultural top-dressing season has essentially ended, andwith demand having been front-loaded this year, the year-on-year growthrate of top-dressing demand has seen a marked decline. In addition, thecompound fertilizer industry has recently faced pressure in sellingfinished products, limiting its demand for urea as a feedstock. Thus,price support on the demand side mainly relies on export quotas grantedby policy. Glass:In the short term, the market remains weak, and medium-termpressure has not yet ended. In last night’s session, glass prices fellsharply, mainly due to sluggish demand combined with the approachingdelivery month for the September contract. As of the close on August 19, glass warehouse receipts stood at 2,438 lots, totaling nearly 49,000tons. On the supply side, the spot glass market still shows no clearsigns of production cuts, with output in recent months hovering around159,000 tons per day. On the policy front, expectations for“anti-involution”and“anti-deflation”measures have weakened. With nosignificant improvement in demand and supply still at relatively highlevels for the year, spot transactions have continued to weaken sincelate July, inventories have steadily increased, and spot prices have seenfrequent cuts. Some producers in Hubei are expected to lower pricesfurther this week by about 20–40 yuan per ton, with low-end quotations inHubei soon to test the 1,000 yuan per ton threshold. Considering thatglass has generally been delivered at a discount this year, longpositions may still face greater pressure in taking delivery. Overall,the market is weak in the short term, and medium-term pressure has notyet ended. Silicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon:Market sentiment has cooled, andalloy trading may return to fundamentals. Yesterday, silicon manganeseand ferrosilicon prices closed lower, retreating to levels last seenbefore the mid-July spot tightness. Since last week, sentiment in coaland coke has cooled, and the ferrous sector has shifted from broad gainsto a correction phase, with trading gradually returning to fundamentals.Last week, hot metal output remained weak and steady, while apparentdemand for construction steel fell sharply. Adding to this, productionrestrictions at steel mills next week due to the military parade, alongwith limitations on truck transport of raw materials, suggest onlymoderate demand support. For ferrosilicon, the previous price surge was strongly influenced by“anti-involution”sentiment, with relatively weaker cost supportcompared with silicon manganese, as manganese ore offered strongerbacking. Although electricity settlement prices are expected to rise,earlier price gains had already given producers ample profit margins, leading to deeper declines in ferrosilicon than in silicon manganese. Forsilicon manganese, significant manganese ore arrivals in recent weeksmean ore price support may weaken in line with futures and fundamentals.At present, alloy inventories are shifting from upstream producers tomidstream traders, leaving large volumes concentrated in traders’hands.With the September contract nearing expiry, silicon manganese warrantsmay see concentrated registrations, creating additional pressure on themarket. Attention should be paid to how alloy producers adjust productionpace after this round of pricedeclines, as well as how peak-seasonexpectations affect raw material demand. Caution is also advisedregarding supply-side information from the ore market, which couldtrigger sentiment-driven volatility in futures prices. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's one-year loan prime rate (LPR), a market-based benchmarklending rate, came in at 3 percent Wednesday, unchanged from theprevious month. The over-five-year LPR, on which many lenders base their mortgage rates,also remained unchanged from the previous reading of 3.5 percent,ac