早上洞察：2025年8月19日

Morning Insight:August 19, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Live hogs:Since July, leading producers have responded to policy callsby increasing supply while lowering target weights, leading to a steadydecline in spot hog prices. By late August, target weights could fall to120kg. Some in the market continue to expect thatreduced weights followed by restocking will drive prices higher, which earlier led tofutures contracts showing a premium structure. However, repeated bullishexpectations have failed to materialize. The increase in supply and lowerweights from leading producers have instead restrained mid-tier firms andsmaller farmers from selling, with Yuyie data showing rising hog weightsamong smallholders and limited destocking. In addition, since July, feedconsumption has grown beyond seasonal patterns, disprovingthe earlierassumption of PED supply disruptions in the first half of the year, andconfirming that profit-driven supply increases will be realized in Q3 andQ4. This has resulted in a passive inventory build-up, putting overallpressure on spot prices through August and September. From a deliveryperspective, regions including Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Jiangsu, andShaanxi currently enjoy significant delivery profits. The Septembercontract still holds a premium but has been weakening. As deliveryapproaches, the basis structure is expected to gradually switch back to adiscount, while longer-dated contracts remain supported by expectations,favoring a continued trend of reverse arbitrage. Government Bond Futures: On Monday, government bond futures extended their correction, with theyield curve continuing to steepen. Amid the correction, the basisnarrowed counterintuitively, signaling that the market has yet tostabilize, so we maintain a slightly bearish outlookwith expectations ofcontinued volatility. The PBoC’s Q2 Monetary Policy Implementation Report released last weekendemphasized two key themes:“continuation of easing”and“structuralmeasures.”It reiterated the importance of“preventing idle circulationof funds,”“maintaining a healthy balance between finance and the realeconomy,”and“using both aggregate and structural monetary policytools.”From a regulatory perspective, interest rates will still need tofluctuate in both directions going forward. If the policy framework is one of structural emphasis with aggregaterestraint, then short-dated bond futures contracts may show resilience,while long-dated contracts remain vulnerable to adjustments triggered bychanging inflation expectations, unexpected macro policy shifts, orswings in risk appetite in the equity market. At the same time, weakmacro data last week failed to support the bond market, and thesteepening of the futures curve continued. From the perspective of positions by institution type, last week bothwealth management subsidiaries and foreign investors reduced their netlong positions sharply, by around 25%. As we anticipated, inter-contractspreads continued to widen, while the basis narrowed abnormally duringthe selloff. Taking into account the cash bond trend, redemption pressure on bondfunds, and equity-bond linkages, the current correction may still havefurther room to run. If the traditional peak season in September andOctober underperforms and policy expectations disappoint, the market maysee a short-term rebound. However, overall, we continue to hold aslightly bearish view that has persisted since June, with expectations ofchoppy trading. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Zou Lan, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), thecentral bank, highlighted the important role of movable propertyfinancing in an article made public on Monday. Movable property financing, as an important financing method, isgradually becoming a crucial tool for enterprises, especially micro,small and medium-sized enterprises, to address financing difficulties,Zou said in the article. Currently, a significant amount of movable property resources in Chinaremain idle, with utilization rates still below international standards,Zou said. Going forward, efforts should be made to improve the utilization ofmovable property, optimize their allocation, and increase financingaccessibility for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. As of the end of June 2025, the PBOC unified registration and publicitysystem for movable property financing has accumulated 152,000 registeredusers, including banks, cooperative financial institutions, and leasingcompanies. From January 2021 to June 2025, the system recorded a total of 42.235million registrations, with an annual average growth rate of 29 percent.The system serves nearly 18 million guarantors, primarily micro, smalla