早晨洞察：2025年11月27日

Morning Insight:November 27, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Coal:Expectations for supply recovery continue to improve, while demand Earlier, the government’s stance on ensuring energy production and supply expectations. In recent days, with details of the 2026 long-term contractsigning notice circulating, the market consensus that coal supply remains On the demand side, on the one hand, coking coal faces a seasonal declinein blast furnace operating rates at downstream steel mills; on the other The weakening supply–demand spread expectation has led to a continuedsharp pullback in coking coal futures prices, but there remains some risk Peanuts:Futures prices are converging toward spot, capital-driventrading is intensifying, and the market is running in a slightly From a fundamentals perspective, spot peanut prices show clear regionaldivergence—high in the Northeast and low in Henan. Overall quality in Henan is relatively poor, with bulk peanuts holding around 8,000yuan/ton, whereas the Northeast has better-quality bulk peanuts priced In the earlier period, the market had already fully reflected oil mills'price suppression in procurement and ample supply flowing into the marketat the grassroots level; therefore, the price floor is relatively solid. At the same time, in terms of capital flows, as the January contractapproaches position limits, shorts that are unable to make delivery are Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in hedging willingness Polyolefins:Limited new capacity will come online before the 2605(MAY2026)contract, meaning supply pressure will mainly stem from high For PE, last week’s ethylene cracker load reductions had some impact,though part of the declines were due to planned maintenance. For PP, PDH for standard-grade products in the future. Currently, PE is in its strongest seasonal window driven by agriculturaldemand. Looking forward, agricultural and pipe-grade demand will weaken For PP, existing capacity isabundant, and supply flexibility willcontinue to rely heavily on PDH units. Holding willingness across the From a spread perspective, with agricultural demand for PE peaking andturning weaker, and PE margins outperforming PP, we see potential Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1.China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five otherdepartments released an action plan on Wednesday, mapping out key By 2027, the supply structure of consumer goods is expected to besignificantly optimized, with three trillion-yuan (about 141.25 billion 2030, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth will be A total of 19 key tasks will be implemented, including strengthening theintegrated empowerment of artificial intelligence, cultivating new Efforts will also be made to expand the supply of characteristic and newproducts, such as promoting the expansion and upgrading of green In addition, China will focus on matching the needs of different groupsof people, including enriching the supply of infant and child products, In the next step, the ministry will work with relevant departments toguide local departments and industry associations in implementing the 2.With the inauguration of new test workshops on Tuesday, VolkswagenGroup China Technology Company (VCTC) has completed the core expansion of Volkswagen Group China said that this milestone means that Volkswagen hasnow established a complete end-to-end R&D system in China, achieving Covering an approximate area of 100,000 square meters, the new test capabilities such as software and hardware integration, battery and The new facilities will shorten the overall vehicle development time "China is the world's most competitive automotive market, and ourcustomers here expect rapid innovation and flawless quality. This is whywe are taking our development capabilities in China for China to the next VCTC began operations in January 2024. Over the years, Volkswagen hasbuilt a base in Hefei, covering the complete value chain from new energy 3.The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strengthened 30 pips to 7.0796 against the U.S. dollar Wednesday, Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the