早晨洞察：2026年2月27日

Morning Insight:February 27,2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Cotton:Gains in overseas markets and technical buying drove a sharprally in Zhengzhou cotton futures after the long holiday, with the marketclosely watching downstream demand and the domestic–overseas pricespread. During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas cotton futures rose,lifting domestic cotton futures upon reopening. Technical buying pushed Manganese silicon:Yesterday the main manganese silicon contract showedstrong intraday performance, rising to a high of 5,966 yuan/ton andclosing at 5,918 yuan/ton, up 2.85%, as speculative sentiment heated upsignificantly. The unusual price movement was mainly triggeredby newsrelated to South Africa’s Ministry of Finance releasing the 2026 budgetreview document, National Treasury Budget Review 2026, which once again purchasing advantage, prompting downstream users with rigid demand toturn to domestic procurement, which has also stimulated some speculativedemand. Coupled with relatively low port inventories and firm sellerquotations, transaction prices have continued to rise. Specifically,since the beginning of 2026, Indonesia has repeatedly signaled tightercoal supply policies, including stricter RKAB approvals, the impositionof export taxes, and plans to increase the DMO ratio, all of which Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. The ChiNext Index, tracking China's Nasdaq-style board of growthenterprises, gained 1.41 percent to close at 3,354.82 points on 2. The STAR Composite Index, which reflects the performance of stocks onChina's sci-tech innovation board, closed 1.2 percent higher at 1,819.72 3. The 2026 Zhongguancun Forum (ZGC Forum) is scheduled to be held in With the annual theme of "Full Integration Between Technological andIndustrial Innovation," this year's forum will feature five main Main events will include the opening ceremony and plenary session,parallel forums, achievement releases, the ZGC International Technology This year's forum is jointly organized by several Chinese governmentagencies, including the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Founded in 2007 with the permanent theme of "Innovation and Development,"the forum has evolved into a global, comprehensive, open, and high-level Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are owned by Guotai Junan Futures orare legallyauthorized for use. No individual or institution may use these trademarks, service marks, or logos without the writtenpermission of Guotai