早上洞察：2025年6月5日

Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtjas.com 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分downside is limited due to the low valuation. A weak and volatile marketis more probable.Industrial Silicon:Weak fundamental outlook, recommended to short onrallies.In the short term, prices have been supported by market sentiment, butoverall fundamentals show no improvement.From a fundamental perspective, as supply resumes, industry-wideinventories continue to build. On the supply side, production in thenorthwest region remains high, and silicon producers in the southwest arealso resuming operations due to the abundant water season, bothcontributing to increased supply.On the demand side, downstream purchases remain based on rigid demand.Some polysilicon plants have resumed operations, which may slightly boostprocurement; organosilicon plants are also expected to resume, supportingsome demand recovery. However, the increase in demand is insufficient tochange the overall fundamental picture.On the cost side, with coal prices weakening, industrial siliconproduction costs have also declined.Overall, the industrial silicon sector still faces high inventorypressure. The scale of upstream plant restarts has exceeded expectations,which may further weaken fundamentals. Going forward, industrial siliconprices may remain under downward pressure.A strategy of shorting onprice rallies is recommended.Coking Coal:Yesterday, coking coal prices surged close to the daily limit, settlingat 768 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 7%. The main drivers weremultiple news items, including the imposition of a 20% resource tax onMongolian coal exports, unexpected productioncuts in Shanxi, and theimplementation of the new Mineral Resources Law leading to a significant 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分capacity reduction. However, the authenticity of these reports hasgradually been disproven.As market sentiment begins to settle, fundamentals are expected to regaindominance. Furthermore, since spot prices have not followed the rallysignificantly, the upcoming off-season will likely bring additionalpressure. This, combined with the entry of industrial hedging funds, willcreate resistance to continued price increases.Therefore, the current rebound in futures should mainly be viewed as anarrowing of the discount to spot prices (currently, Mongolian #5warehouse receipt prices range from 790 to 850 yuan/ton).The sustainability of this rebound depends on two aspects: 1.) the degreeof alignment with spot market prices; 2.) whether expectations aroundchanges in production capacity on the supply side evolve further.Chart1：Market SnapshotSource：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES ResearchCSI 300 Index Futures3824.80.41%SSE 50 Index Futures2668.60.16%CSI 500 Index Futures5638.40.76%CSI 1000 Index Futures5998.00.82%30Y T-bond Futures118.70.05%10Y T-bond Futures108.50.05%5Y T-bond Futures105.70.05%2Y T-bond Futures102.20.02%Market Snapshot 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Open InterestChart2:Open Interest of IFSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart4:Open Interest of ICSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchNews Highlights:1. China's Ministry of Finance on Wednesday issued this year's thirdbatch of yuan-denominated treasury bonds--worth a total of 12.5 billionyuan (about 1.74 billion U.S. dollars)--in the Hong Kong SpecialAdministrative Region (HKSAR).The issuance included 3.5 billion yuan of two-year bonds, 3 billion yuanof three-year bonds, 3 billion yuan of five-year bonds, and 3 billionyuan of 10-year bonds, according to the ministry. These bonds have020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000IF2506.CFEIF2509.CFE020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000IC2506.CFEIC2509.CFE Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart 5:Open Interest of IMSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000IM2506.CFEIM2507.CFEIM2509.CFEIM2512.CFE IC2507.CFEIC2512.CFE 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分5respective interest rates of 1.49 percent, 1.52 percent, 1.6 percent, and1.75 percent.This latest issuance has been well-received among investors, with thetotal bid amount coming in at 3.96 times the amount in circulation, theministry said.Last month, it announced that it would issue six batches of yuan-denominated treasury bonds in the HKSAR this year, with all six batchestotaling 68 billion yuan. (Source: Xinhua)2. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,weakened 17 pips to 7.1886 against the U.S. dollar Wednesday, accordingto the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. (Source: Xinhua)3. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 12.71 points, or 0.05 percent, toopen at 23,499.78 points on Wednesday. (Source: Xinhua)Chart 6:Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar2025/6/9Monthly Report on China’s Consumer Price Index(CPI)Monthly Report on Producer Price Index in theIndustrial Sector2025/6/16NationalEconomic PerformanceMonthly Report on IndustrialProduction OperationMonthly Report on Energy ProductionMonthly Report on Investment in Fixed Assets(Excluding Rural Households)Mont