早上洞察：2025年6月3日

Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtjas.com 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Copper:Overseas copper prices have risen, primarily driven by a weaker U.S.dollar and a relatively strong fundamental backdrop. On the supply side,raw copper materials remain tight, while downstream and end-userconsumption is resilient, prompting continued restocking on price dips.China's social inventories remain historically low, with spot pricesmaintaining a premium. Demand remains solid, supported by robustperformance in the new energy, home appliances, and power grid sectors.On the supply front, tightavailability of copper concentrate andrecycled copper has increased the likelihood of future smelter productioncuts. Meanwhile, market speculation has resumed around potential coppertariffs under a future Trump administration, widening the COMEX-LMEcopper spread and possibly diverting deliverable copper toward the U.S.COMEX market. LME copper inventories continue to decline, with a highproportion of canceled warrants, signaling strong physical demand.However, macro uncertainties linger, especially around volatile U.S.tariff policies, which could dampen investor sentiment. From a tradingperspective, the strategy favors buying on dips during price weakness.Equity Index Futures:Market sentiment remains volatile due to fluctuating trade-relatedheadlines, though notable support levels remain intact. During theholiday, messages regarding U.S.-China trade relations were mixed,leaving the direction of tensions highly uncertain. However, based onprevious market reactions—from the April lows tied to high tariffexpectations to the May 14 highs following optimistic trade negotiations—the pricing range for these events appears largely defined. Futuredevelopments are unlikely to significantly exceed this range. Externally,tariff concerns and internally, policy responses interact—offsetting eachother to some extent. Despite underlying macro concerns, shiftingexpectations around domestic policy support could regain focus.Manufacturing PMI data released during the break suggests some recovery 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分in sentiment following the Geneva Agreement, but current dynamics stillshow oversupply relative to demand and ongoing price pressures.Additionally, declining short-cycle inventory levels and the continueddownturn in commodities highlight a worsening macro outlook, which mayfurther boost expectations for support in real estate and fiscal policy.Overall, a cautiously bullish stance remains appropriate—buy on dips andtake profits on rebounds.Chart1：Market SnapshotSource：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES ResearchOpen InterestChart2:Open Interest of IFChart 3:Open Interest of IHSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchCSI 300 Index Futures3879.6-0.88%SSE 50 Index Futures2715.4-0.82%CSI 500 Index Futures5614.8-0.95%CSI 1000 Index Futures5950.0-1.30%30Y T-bond Futures119.0-0.10%10Y T-bond Futures108.60.05%5Y T-bond Futures105.70.04%2Y T-bond Futures102.3-0.00%Market Snapshot020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000IF2506.CFEIF2507.CFEIF2509.CFEIF2512.CFE010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000IH2506.CFEIH2507.CFEIH2509.CFEIH2512.CFE 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchNews Highlights:1. China's consumer goods trade-in program has generated 1.1 trillionyuan (about 153.1 billion U.S. dollars) in sales in the first five monthsthis year, the Ministry of Commerce said on Sunday.As of Saturday, nationwide trade-ins had fueled a surge in transactions,including 4.12 million vehicles, 77.62 million units of householdappliances and 56.63 million units of digital products--such as mobilephones, among others, data from the ministryshowed.The program, part of China's broader efforts to spur domestic demand, hasboosted a sustained recovery in the country's consumer spending,according to the ministry.In the government work report released in March 2025, boostingconsumption was listed as a top priority among this year's tasks.Retail sales of consumer goods, a major indicator of the country'sconsumption strength, rose 4.7 percent year on year in the first fourmonths of 2025, accelerating from the 4.6-percent growth recorded in thefirst quarter of the year, official data revealed. (Source: Xinhua)2. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's non-manufacturingsector came in at 50.3 in May, down 0.1 percentage points from theprevious month but still keeping the expansion momentum in general, Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分official data showed Saturday. (Source: Xinhua)3. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sectorcame in at 49.5 in May, up 0.5 percentage points from April, officialdata showed Saturday. (Source: Xinhua)Chart 6:Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar2025/6/9Monthly Report on China’s Consumer Price Index(CPI)Monthly Report on Producer Price Index in theIndustrial Sector2025/6/16NationalEconomic PerformanceMonthly Repo