早上洞察：2025年6月4日

Morning Insight:June 4, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtjas.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen028987@gtjas.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Synthetic Rubber:In the short term, synthetic rubber has seen a mildrebound from low static valuations, but medium-term fundamentals remainunder pressure. Currently, butadiene prices are holding within the 9,000–9,300 yuan/ton range, providing cost support for PBR (polybutadienerubber), which finds additional support around 10,700–10,800 yuan/tonfrom a valuation perspective. As long as butadiene does not show furthersigns of decline, market sentiment has stabilized somewhat, leading to amodest recovery in futures prices. However, in the medium term, the mainconcern lies in weak demand across the rubber sector. With ample supplyin both natural and synthetic rubber markets, the weak demand continuesto drive bearish fundamentals, keeping overall trends under pressure. Rapeseed Meal:Rapeseed meal prices remain under pressure, primarily dueto the weakness in soybean meal spot prices. With a surge in soybeanimports leading to significantly higher domestic crushing activity,soybean meal has entered an inventory accumulation phase. This supplypressure continues to push spot prices lower, narrowing the price spreadbetween soybean meal and rapeseed meal, further squeezing rapeseed mealdemand. Concerns are rising that rapeseed meal demand may soon be limitedto aquaculture use only. Additionally, the market is closely watching developments in China–Canadatrade relations. Given the already well-priced-in expectation of tighterrapeseed meal supply from June to September (as reflected in the price spread between the September soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts),futures prices are particularly sensitive to any signs of improvement inbilateral trade ties. In summary, unless China effectively digests the pressure fromconcentrated Brazilian soybean arrivals or adverse weather impacts U.S.soybeans, rapeseed meal futures are likely to continue tracking soybeanmeal lower. Furthermore, any unexpected increasein rapeseed meal supplywould exacerbate the downward pressure on futures prices. Caustic Soda: Strong reality, weak expectations. Watch for cost changes.Yesterday, the September caustic soda contract fell sharply, with thecore logic of short positions mainly based on shorting profits. From afundamentals perspective, although maintenance in June and aluminarestocking can still support the market, the sustainability may belimited. From an inventory perspective, a certain alumina enterprise in Shandonghas low caustic soda inventory. If inventory builds later, based onhistorically high shipment volumes of 17,000–18,000 tons, and dailyinventory accumulation of 5,000–6,000 tons, then a new round of pricecuts may occur after late June. However, after restocking, under negativedemand feedback (weakness outside of aluminum, alumina plants possiblyslowing stockpiling), there could be pressure on the spot market again.The market will likely continue to favor shorting chlor-alkali profits.Considering that spot caustic soda prices are difficult to rise in theshort term, but also unlikely to fall sharply, the market is showing apattern of a spread-based decline. On the supply side, there are still many maintenance plans for causticsoda in June, especially in Shandong. But since profits are not in aloss-making state, plant operating rates remain high. Additionally, thereis new production capacity expected to come online in June–July.Therefore, after maintenance, the caustic soda market may return to ahigh production pattern. On the cost side, given the overall decline in coal and electricityprices this year, self-supplied power plants have no incentive to cutproduction, and grid-connected power enterprises still have relativelylarge profit margins. Especially in June, electricity prices in Shandongprovince fell further, which has opened downward room for caustic sodavaluations—but changes in liquid chlorine prices should also bemonitored. In summary, insufficient demand-side momentum is leading the market toshort caustic soda profits. But given the strong basis structure, theshort-term downside space may be limited. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China is making continuous efforts to enhance electricity access inorder to meet the growing demand for high-quality power services andsupport the country's economic and social development. A guideline issued by the National Development and Reform Commission aswell as the National Energy Administration called on energy authoritiesand grid operators nationwide to take concrete steps to further enhanceelectricity connectivity services, withthe goal of establishing amodern, efficient business environment for electricity service