早上洞察：2025年6月30日

Morning Insight:June 30, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Copper:Price Rises Driven by Temporary Alignment of Micro and MacroFactors Copper prices have been rising, primarily due to a temporary convergenceof micro and macro drivers. On the micro side, spot copper remains tight,with low domestic inventories and a rapid drawdown in LME stocks, keepingspot prices in sustained contango. Overseas factors are having a stronger impact on prices: the U.S. economyis showing signs of bottoming, and expectations of copper tariffs under apotential Trump administration have significantly boosted COMEX copperprices. The price spread between COMEX and LME copper has widened toaround $1,400/ton, attracting global shipments toward the U.S. This hasled to falling LME inventories and high spot premiums on the 0–3 spread.With LME prices stronger than domestic prices, Chinese exporters areseeing profits from sending shipments to bonded zones or LME warehouses,resulting in a drawdown of domestic commercial inventories. On the macro front, easing tensions in the Middle East and risingexpectations of a Fed rate cut have improved market risk sentiment. In terms of trading strategy, given the temporary alignment of macro andmicro fundamentals, copper prices are expected to remain firm. For spreadtrading, the export of some domestic supply may support domestic–overseasarbitrage (short domestic, long overseas). At the same time, withdomestic inventories still low and drawing down, the Shanghai copper calendar spread (long near-term, short far-term) remains a favorablestrategy. Glass:Short-Term Surge Unlikely to Sustain, Market Still Range-Bound—Caution Advised on Chasing Lows In the first half of the year, glass prices fell continuously due to weakdemand from the real estate sector, supply contraction falling short ofexpectations, high factory inventories, and heavy pressure from warehousereceipts. However, at the beginningof June, prices dropped to around 950yuan/ton. At that level, the valuation was considered low, and producerswere facing significant losses. In addition, futures prices approachedthe level at which manufacturers were buying back warehouse receipts,triggering a valuation-driven rebound. Recently, there have been frequent rumors of supply cuts on the costside, and with growing anticipation of anti-deflation policy shifts, themarket has begun to price in potential future optimism. The currentperiod also coincides with the run-up to the traditional peak season,contributing to a more positive market sentiment. However, it’s important to note that spot glass prices remain weak. Somefactories experienced price drops of around 80–100 yuan/ton on long-heldinventory last week. On the bright side, there has been no significantdecline in prices for the main deliverable grades. Nonetheless, pressurefrom existing warehouse receipts remains, and the futures curve is incontango (far-month contracts priced higher). In summary, the market is likely to remain in a range-bound state. Therecent rebound is difficult to sustain, but downside space is alsolimited. Traders should be cautious when considering chasing shortpositions at low levels. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's local governments issued new bonds worth an approximate totalof 1.98 trillion yuan (about 277 billion U.S. dollars) in the first fivemonths of this year, data from the Ministry of Finance showed on Friday.Of that total, general-purpose bond issuance came in at 351 billion yuan,and special-purpose bond issuance amounted to over 1.63 trillion yuan.From January to May, local government bonds were issued with an averageterm of 16.4 years and at an average interest rate of 1.95 percent.By the end of May, China's outstanding local government debts stood atapproximately 51.25 trillion yuan, the ministry said.China has pledged a more proactive fiscal policy this year to shore upsustained economic and social development. The country plans to issue 4.4trillion yuan in local government special-purpose bonds in 2025, markingan increase of 500 billion yuan from last year, according to this year'sgovernment work report. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China is accelerating its shift to greener fuels in inland watertransport, with more than 1,000 vessels powered by new energy or cleanenergy now operating nationwide, according to the Ministry of Transport.As of the end of 2024, the country had over 600 liquefied natural gas(LNG) vessels, primarily used for inland cargo transport, and 485battery-powered electric vessels, mostly serving as passenger ferries,Vice Transport Minister Fu Xuyin told a press conference on Friday.A smaller number of inland vessels powered by methanol or hydro