早上洞察：2025年9月30日

Morning Insight:September 30, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Industrial silicon:Upstream plants are gradually resuming production, andsupply-demand dynamics are weakening. Yesterday, market news reported thatfactoriesin Xinjiang are successively restarting operations,creatingexpectations of increased supply. Combined with the pullback in coking coalfutures,sentiment turned bearish for the market.In terms of supply anddemand,with Xinjiang plants resuming and at a faster pace than before,whilepolysilicon production on the demand side has not yet shown asignificant reduction, demand still provides some support but the increaseinsupply will be greater.This shifts the supply-demand balance towardinventory accumulation. Looking ahead, as Xinjiang plants continue to resumeoperations, there is also a possibility of inventorybuildup during the dryseason, which will weigh on the market. From a trading strategy perspective,giventhe supply-demand logic,the main approach is to short on rallies.Withthe National Day holiday approaching,it is advisable to hold lightpositionsduring the break. Live hogs:Recently, live hog contracts have experienced significantdeclines, mainly because earlier policy expectations supported themarket, but once policies were implemented after the meeting, the marketshifted to trading on reality. Based on production cycleprojections,live hog supply for Q2 2026 is already largely set, with policyadjustments expected to take effect in Q3. As piglet prices fall belowthe cost line, the May and July contracts offered high hedging profits, and after the September 16 meeting, a catch-up decline occurred. InSeptember, the market continued to show a passive inventory build-uppattern. By the end of the month, sales progress among large groups wasslow, and October slaughter plans are expectedto increase by more than8%. With transportation restricted across regions during the National Dayholiday, passive stockholding may occur, leading to concentrated releasepressure afterward. Seasonal demand weakens in October, and spot pricesmay accelerate downward. This year’s double-holiday stocking season hasunderperformed expectations, with spot prices in low-price regionsfalling below 11 yuan/kg. The November contract still carries a premiumof nearly 1,000 yuan/ton, but with the holiday period being relativelylong, itis advisable to maintain light positions over the break whileholding the Nov–Sep reverse arbitrage spread. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's non-manufacturingsector came in at 50 in September, down 0.3 percentage points from theprevious month, official data showed Tuesday. (Source: Xinhua) 2. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sectorstood at 49.8 in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previousmonth, official data showed Tuesday. (Source: Xinhua) 3. China's National Social Security Fund posted an investment return of8.1 percent in 2024, earning 218.42 billion yuan (about 30.72 billionU.S. dollars), according to an annual report released Tuesday. (Source:Xinhua) 2025/9/27Monthly Report on Profit of Industrial EnterprisesAbove the Designated Size2025/9/30Monthly Report on Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If youare not a professional investor among the clients of Guotai Junan Futures, please do not read, subscribe to, or receive anyrelatedinformation from the Company. This report does not constitute a recommendation for any specific business activities,nor should it be considered as any investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Company does not consider the recipientof this report to be an automatic client of the Company. Please make investment decisions based on your own risk toleranceand bear the corresponding investment risks independently. Do not rely on this content for specific investment actions. Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure