早上洞察：2025年9月15日

Morning Insight:September 15, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： MEG:The directional trend may remain weak, with a JAN-MAY reverse spreadstrategy. Supply pressures are gradually emerging. The trial run atYulong Petrochemical’s new integrated unit has proceeded smoothly;Sanjiang Chemical, Yuan Dong Lian, and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s Line 1have slightly increased operating rates, while Sichuan, Hainan, andFujian United have reduced loads. On the coal-based side, Xinjiang Tianyeand Inner Mongolia Jianyuan are under maintenance, while Sinochem,Sichuan Zhengdakai, Anhui Haoyuan, and Shanxi Woneng have increasedoperating rates. The domestic MEG operating rate stands at 74.9% (+0.8%),with coal-based at 76.7% (+2%). On the polyester side, this week’s operating rate reached 91.6% (+0.3%),with partial increases in filament production and Zhongtai short fiberresuming. Later, Tianlong’s 20 filament lines are set to restart, but noother restart plans are in place. Polyester load is unlikely to exceed92%. Last week, filament producers planned a 5% reduction in POY output,but conditions are not yet in place since profits remain too high;instead, POY may shift to FDY production. Polyester operating rates havealready peaked, and demand is expected to weaken in Q4. The MEG supply-demand balance sheet remains relatively tight in the nearterm, but medium-to long-term supply pressures are emerging, suggestingvaluations are biased downward. Lead:In the short term, tight lead concentrate supply and marginaldemand improvement are supporting prices. On the supply side, primary lead output remains under pressure, whilesecondary lead smelters continue to operate at a loss. Spot import TC for60% grade lead concentrate stayed at low levels this week, constrainingprimary lead smelter operating rates. Some smelters have already startedmaintenance, which could further weigh on production. Meanwhile, winterstocking of lead concentrate in certain regions is intensifying thetightness. On the demand side, lead-acid battery consumption has shown signs ofrecovery, with product shipments improving at some battery plants. Largelead-acid battery producers have seasonally raised their operating ratesand are increasing raw material procurement at current relatively lowprices. Going forward, attention should be paid to replenishment levels at lead-acid battery producers ahead of the National Day holiday. If leadinventories are drawn down quickly, prices may remain relatively strong.Trading strategy: existing long positions can be held; for new longs, itis advisable to wait for better entry opportunities. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's railway construction efforts saw steady progress in the firsteight months of 2025, with fixed-asset investment rising 5.6 percent yearon year, data from China State Railway Group Co., Ltd. showed. From January to August, fixed-asset investment in the railway sectortotaled 504.1 billion yuan (about 70.98 billion U.S. dollars), accordingto the company. This investment has played a significant role in driving overall investment and injected fresh momentum into efforts to expand domesticdemand and underpin the steady recovery of the Chinese economy, thecompany said. Railway projects across the country have advanced steadily this year. Inthe first half of 2025, 301 km of new lines were put into operation,while preparatory work for the construction of additional routes alsomade solid progress. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Saturday that it hasinitiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of certain analog ICchips originating from the United States. In response to a media query, a spokesperson for the ministry said theU.S. government has recently overstretched the concept of nationalsecurity, abused export controls and long-arm jurisdiction, andmaliciously blocked and suppressed China's chip products and theartificial intelligence industry. Such practices have seriously violated World Trade Organization (WTO)rules and damaged the legitimate rights and interests of Chineseenterprises, and China is firmly opposed to them, the spokesperson said.The probe was launched in response to an application submitted by aprovincial semiconductor industry association on behalf of the domesticindustry, the ministry said in a statement. Preliminary evidence submitted by the applicant showed that from 2022 to2024, imports of the products from the United States increased by 37percent while their prices fell by 52 percent, which depressed China's domestic prices and harmed the production and operations of the domesticindustry, the spokesperson said. The investigation authorities will conduct