早晨洞察：2025年8月15日

Morning Insight:August 15, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Palm Oil:Strong supply and demand at the origin, focus on buying onpullbacks. The high inventory level in Malaysia this year has beengradually digested by the market since April. Starting from June,relevant price indicators in Indonesia have shown resilience againstdeclines, the Indonesia–Malaysia price spread has remained at a highlevel, the relative premium of European vegetable oils to global pricesbottomed out early, and European diesel crack spreads have strengthenedsignificantly, injecting new upward momentum into vegetable oils sinceJune.By July, the increase in Malaysian inventories had slowed sharply,and this year’s inventory peak may have already been reached, whileIndonesian inventories have remained at historically low levels of 2–3million tons. In other words, the bearish impact from palm oil supplyrecovery was fully priced in during Q2, and there are no new significantbearish fundamentals. When production areas enter the low-productionseason with extremely low inventories, building long positions at lowlevels in palm oil willlikely be the main theme for the second half ofthe year.Going forward, further price upside will require monitoringwhether India’s import margins expand, coupled with tightening soybeanoil supply and a failure of the expected recovery in Indonesianproduction. Recently, China has booked additional shipments; the Jan–Maybull spread may have opportunities on pullbacks, with participationsuggested if it retraces to around 200. Coke and Coking Coal:Position limits cool sentiment, coal prices fallrapidly.Previous rally logic: Anti–“involution”policies createdexpectations of reduced coking coal supply. Macro funds trading on the“anti-involution”theme pushed futures prices higher, with futuresprices exceeding spot prices. This led traders to buy spot and sellfutures, tightening spot liquidity and causing spot prices to rise aswell. Coking coal inventories shifted from upstream to mid-anddownstream, which typically corresponds with price increases. <br/>Weakened rally drivers: First, after the close on August 13, theDalian Commodity Exchange once again announced position limits andadjustments to transaction fees for coking coal, indicating that therapid rise in coking coal futures had once again attracted regulatoryattention. Regulators actively increased trading difficulty, promptingconcentrated long liquidation and driving futures prices lower. Second,the bullish drivers have been largely priced in; during Wednesday’s nightsession, upstream coal mines began to build inventories while portdestocking slowed, suggesting midstream traders’ability to take deliveryhad weakened, leaving fewer counterparties and ending the phase ofpositive feedback expectations. Third, spot auction prices have shownsigns of easing, with higher rates of unsold lots and some coal gradesseeing price declines.Coke producers are pushing for a sixth round ofprice hikes, but steel mills, facing compressed profit margins, areshowing strong resistance. In addition, the coke–coking coal price ratiohas returned to its normal range, leaving coke under pressure on bothends and unable to display strong independent drivers. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's data sector has seen significant growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), with notable strides made in market sizeand digital infrastructure, official data showed Thursday.The sector'sscale reached 5.86 trillion yuan (about 821.45 billion U.S. dollars) bythe end of 2024, up 117 percent from the end of 2020, Liu Liehong, headof the National Data Administration, told a press conference on Thursday.He noted that the number of data-related enterprises in China hadexceeded 400,000 by the end of 2024, and the sector is expected tomaintain strong growth in the coming years.Meanwhile, China's digitalinfrastructure has achieved significant progress, leading globally inscale and technological advancement.According to Liu, by the end of June2025, the country had built 4.55 million 5G base stations, and the numberof gigabit broadband users had reached 226 million.China's computationalpower now ranks second in the world, providing robust support foreconomic and social development, Liu said. (Source: Xinhua) 2. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strengthened 13 pips to 7.1337 against the U.S. dollar Thursday,according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. (Source: Xinhua) 3. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank, onThursday said that it will conduct a 500-billion-yuan (about 70 billionU.S. dollars) outright reverse repo operation on Frid