早晨洞察：2025年10月15日

Morning Insight:October 15, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： LPG:Ahead of the holidays, Middle Eastern CP prices have led Asian LPGprices lower across the board. Currently, the domestic propane importcost (including tax) has fallen below 4,000 yuan/ton. Under the impact oflow-priced LPG, PDH plants have increased procurement activity, and Asiancrackers have also raised LPG feedstock intake, leading to a significantincrease in demand. However, against the backdrop of competition between Middle Eastern andU.S. propane resources for the South Asian market, and the continueddecline in Asian polyolefin prices, the overall LPG market has notrebounded on speculative demand. Domestically, LPG pricing is linked toresidential gas, and near-term residential gas prices remain stable.Combined with weakening external cost support, the pattern of strongdomestic versus weak overseas prices has become clear, favoring bullishinter-month spread positions. Nonetheless, attention should be paid tothe progress of China–U.S. trade tensions, as any rebound in crude oilprices would weaken the inter-month spread logic. Cotton:Stable in the short term, with attention on international tradedevelopments. At present, cotton futures are being influenced by both market trends andthe pace of new cotton purchases. The selling pressure from newlyharvested cotton has partially eased before the holiday, leading to a stabilization in seed cotton prices and a shift in futures from adownward trend to a narrow-range consolidation. Looking ahead to mid-November, international trade dynamics are expectedto play a more dominant role, with external factors likely to outweighdomestic fundamentals. Overall, ginning mills are showing low riskappetite and a strong preference for hedging,which limits the upsidepotential for cotton futures. Therefore, in the short term, cottonfutures are expected to maintain a weak, range-bound performance. ContainerFreight Index (Europe Route):Short-term fluctuations, withattention on November capacity changes. Yesterday at midday, the EC surged sharply, mainly due to disruptionscaused by China’s Ministry of Commerce announcing countermeasures againstfive U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean. The market’s concern over U.S.involvement in Hanwha Ocean is, in fact, limited to financial investment;at the project level, the related U.S. bank loans are purely debtrelationships, unrelated to ownership or control. The five sanctionedsubsidiaries are connectedto a total of six container vessels of 2,000–3,000 TEU, allowned by U.S. shipowner Matson, which primarily operateson U.S. routes rather than European ones. Therefore, this incident has nosubstantive impact on European routes. From a fundamental perspective, aside from a few shipping companiesshowing weak performance in Week 43, most carriers are expected toachieve full loading, though the rate of cargo rollovers still needsobservation. The average weekly capacity for November has been slightlyrevised down to 302,000 TEU per week (excluding pending voyages), mainlybecause Gemini’s AE2 route in Week 46 is expected to become a blanksailing, providing some support for November’s rate hikes. Going forward,attention should be paid to Week 44’s loading performance and MSC’scapacity changes in November, while on the macro level, developments inChina–U.S. tariff disputes and the progress of the second phase of theIsrael–Hamas negotiations should also be monitored. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The People's Bank of China said Tuesday that it will conduct a 600-billion-yuan (about 84.48 billion U.S. dollars) outright reverse repooperation on Oct. 15 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system.The operation will be carried out with a fixed quantity through interest-rate bidding, with winning bids determined at multiple price levels. Itwill have a tenor of six months, or 182 days, according to the centralbank. Outright reverse repo operations--a tool the central bank introduced inOctober 2024 to manage liquidity in the national banking system--arecarried out each month with a tenor of no more than one year.These operations have enriched the country's monetary policy toolkit,complementing previous measures such as temporary repos, temporaryreverse repos, and the buying and selling of treasury bonds. (Source:Xinhua) 2. China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sector maintained strong momentum inproduction and sales in the first nine months of the year, according toindustry data released Tuesday. NEV production jumped 35.2 percent year on year to 11.24 million unitsduring the first three quarters, as reported by China Association ofAutomobile Manufacturers (CAAM).Sales during the same perio