早晨洞察：2025年10月20日

Morning Insight:October 20, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium Carbonate:Futures warrant inventories have declined sharply; themarket is running strong, but caution is advised against chasing highs.This week, lithium carbonate futures warrant inventory fell from 42,669lots to 30,686 lots, a reduction equivalent to 12,000 tons of lithiumcarbonate, reflecting strong spot market demand amid insufficientdownstream restocking. Weekly lithium carbonateinventories continued todecline to 133,000 tons, with the pace of destocking in Octoberstabilizing around 2,000 tons per week. Despite lithium carbonate weeklyoutput reaching new highs, strong demand has driven ongoing destocking.Market expectations for demand remain generally optimistic and areexpected to stay firm through November. According to SMM’s forecast for October 2025, battery output is expectedto reach 185.8 GWh, up 4% month-on-month. Among cathode materials, LFP(lithium iron phosphate) output is projected to rise 10% month-on-month,while ternary cathode output is expected to grow 2%. However, two major downside risks to lithium prices remain: first, majormica mines in Jiangxi are expected to resume production around the end ofthe year; second, potential U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese goods aroundlate October could significantly weakenthe currently strong energystorage demand. Therefore, lithium carbonate prices should be approachedwith caution, and chasing highs is not recommended. Stock Index Futures:A short-term rebound is possible; continue tomonitor policy developments and geopolitics in the medium term.Over the weekend, former President Trump released signals of trade de-escalation, while overseas markets raised expectations for a FederalReserve rate cut in October. Risk sentiment toward U.S. bank stocksimproved, leading to a notable rebound in A50 andHang Seng Index futuresduring the night session, which may help offset last Friday’s sharpintraday decline. Looking ahead to this week, several key events are on the horizon. Theseinclude Monday’s Q3 GDP data release, the closing communiquéof theFourth Plenary Session on Thursday (which will unveil the core themes ofthe 15th Five-Year Plan), and the subsequent release of the Party’s draftrecommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, offering more policy clues.These developments will provide greater clarity on China’s medium-termpolicy direction and may boost short-term market enthusiasm for themesrelated to technology and reform. Additionally, with the APEC Summit in South Korea approaching on October31, attention will turn to whether both Chinese and U.S. leaders willattend. Given the recent trade frictions in October, any signs ofimprovement at this meeting could become an important driver for marketsentiment. Overall, near-term price movements will be highly dependent on headlinenews. However, with continued policy support domestically and the broaderstability in China–U.S. trade relations, the pullback may present renewedbuying opportunities for long positions. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. A new factory of Swire Coca-Cola Ltd., a bottler of Coca-Cola, was putinto operation Thursday in Zhengzhou, capital of central China's HenanProvince. The new factory is the first world-class factory that has been unveiledin the company's 12 billion-yuan (1.69 billion-U.S. dollar) investmentcommitment in China. It covers an area of nearly 200 mu (13.33 hectares),with an investment of over 900 millionyuan and an annual productioncapacity of over 1 million tonnes, catering to nearly 100 millionconsumers in central China. "The Chinese market has always been an important engine driving thestable operation of Swire Coca-Cola," said Karen So, CEO of Swire Coca-Cola Ltd. The new factory in Zhengzhou integrates the most comprehensive andsustainable practices and continuous innovation accumulated by thecompany over 60 years of development. This conveys Swire Coca-Cola'slong-term commitment to being deeply rooted in the Chinese market andcontributing to high-quality development, she added. The factory highlights green and intelligent elements. It has more than30 green and low-carbon measures, including smart hot water centers,refrigeration and photovoltaic power generation. With over 30 digital systems seamlessly integrated, intelligentscheduling can be achieved throughout the entire process, from orderplacement and inventory to packaging and shipping, utilizing sortingrobots and automated guided vehicles. The Coca-Cola Company stated that it will adopt these intelligent andsustainable practices across its production bases nationwide to foster amore sustainable business and resilient supply chain. Over the past