早晨洞察：2025年10月29日

Morning Insight:October 29, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Copper:Copper prices are expected to remain firm. On the macro level, the easing of China–U.S. trade tensions has boostedmarket risk appetite, while investors await guidance from the FederalReserve’s rate decision. Meanwhile, China’s new Five-Year Plan isexpected to introduce additional economic stimulus measures, which willsupport demand for base metals. From a fundamentals perspective, a series of mine production disruptionshave raised concerns over supply, potentially altering the global coppersupply-demand balance and even leading to future shortages. On the demandside, industries such as new energyvehicles, offshore wind power, energystorage, and charging infrastructure show strong growth potential. Inaddition, the market’s optimism regarding the long-term development of AItechnologies is expected to continue driving copper demand in the mediumto long term. In terms of absolute inventory, more than 40% of global visible copperstocks are held in COMEX warehouses, while inventories outside the U.S.remain relatively low. The low inventory-to-consumption ratio providesupward elasticity for LME copper prices. From a trading perspective, abuy-on-dips or long-position allocation strategy is favored. Synthetic Rubber:In the short term, the weakness in butadiene prices isdriving the dynamic valuation range of BR (butadiene rubber) lower. BR isgradually entering a phase characterized by high output, high inventory, and high profit margins, resulting in continued weakness in its priceperformance. For butadiene, as the market moves into the fourth quarter, high supplypressure remains the main concern. The short-term fundamentals pointdownward, and under the dual backdrop of weak reality and weakexpectations, the spot price center continues to decline. On the macro side, the recently concluded Fourth Plenary Session and therollout of the“15th Five-Year Plan,”along with the weekend’s China–U.S. trade talks, the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut decision, and theAPEC summit in South Korea, are all events that could have significantshort-term impacts on equity markets. Overall, BR is expected to see wide-range fluctuations driven by capitalflows in the near term, while its medium-term price center is likely tocontinue trending downward. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China on Tuesday launched a pumped-storage hydropower stationfeaturing the world's tallest dam of its kind in Jiangsu, the easterneconomic powerhouse province. Located in the city of Jurong and built by a subsidiary of State GridCorporation of China, the fully operational facility has a totalinstalled capacity of 1.35 gigawatts and is expected to generate 1.35billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. The hydropower plant uses off-peak electricity to pump water from a lowerreservoir to an upper one, storing water that can be released to generatepower when demand surges. Its upper reservoir dam stands 182.3 meters high, roughly the height of a60-story building, making it the tallest pumped-storage dam in the world.The reservoir can hold up to 17.07 million cubic meters of water.Jiangsu, an industrial powerhouse in the Yangtze River Delta, facesrecord-breaking electricity demand. Meanwhile, as renewable energycapacity continues to surge, demand for energy storage facilities is alsogrowing. Once fully operational, the power station can help ease grid pressureduring peak time and boost the consumption of power generated fromrenewable energy sources like wind and solar, said Wang Chenhui of theState Grid Zhenjiang Power Supply Company. Since 2021, State Grid has put 78 pumped-storage hydropower generatingunits into operation, bringing the total power generation capacity ofthis kind to 44.53 gigawatts. (Source: Xinhua) 2. The number of overseas tourists claiming China's departure tax refundsurged 229.8 percent year on year in the first nine months of 2025, whilethe total tax refund rose by 97.4 percent, according to data released bythe State Taxation Administration onTuesday. China has introduced a series of measures since April to optimize its taxrefund system for overseas visitors. Tax authorities nationwide haveimproved processing efficiency and enabled cross-region refund services,making the procedure more convenient andboosting tourists' spending.The policy optimization included the establishment of instant tax refundcounters in major shopping districts in cities like Beijing, Shanghai,Chongqing, Chengdu and Guangzhou. Cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhouhave also introduced online refund options, making the process moreefficient. China first implemented the departure tax refund po