早晨洞察：2026年1月14日

Morning Insight:January 14, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Tin:Tin prices have surged sharply in recent days, breaking above theprevious historical high of RMB 395,000/ton reached in 2021 during lastnight’s session. We believe the recent rally has clear underlyingdrivers: supply has remained persistently tight, with Myanmar’s Crude oil:There may still be upside rebound room of USD 2–4 per barrel.Geopolitical risks have intensified recently, with the situation in Iran Although the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz remainslow, the crude oil market’s lingering memory of geopolitical risks maycontinue to embed an emotional risk premium into current prices. Inaddition, recent micro-level trading activity in the physical crude Offset paper:With warehouse receipt tensions easing, the short-termoutlook is choppy but biased to the downside. Recently, double offsetpaper futures prices have retreated notably, which we believe is mainly spot positive carry may emerge, signaling the end of weak-reality-driventrading and a potential phase-bottom for the March contract; second, ifabsolute prices fall to sufficiently low levels, they may attract Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. South China's Shenzhen City on Tuesday completed its first-everelectric vehicle (EV) fee settlement for discharging electricity back to during peak hours the month prior. Shenzhen is among the first group of Chinese cities piloting large-scale V2G interaction is an innovative solution to resolving the contradictionbetween the rapid growth of new energy vehicle ownership and the capacity 2. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has releasedan action plan for the high-quality development of industrial internet The number of industrial devices connected to key platforms is projectedto surpass 120 million units, up from over 100 million currently, with As a core component of the industrial internet, these platforms serve ascrucial carriers for massive data aggregation, model accumulation, and According to the ministry, the plan focuses on three strategicdirections: promoting differentiated development of platforms, To bolster AI integration, China will encourage platform enterprises toincrease R&D investment in high-quality datasets, industrial large transformation of manufacturing. The action plan identifies four key initiatives: cultivating a multi-tierplatform system, aggregating data to enhance intelligence, promoting In terms of market application, China will support innovative service 3. China has released a national standard to scientifically quantify theeconomic value generated by its terrestrial ecosystems, the State The newly implemented guideline for the standard establishes a unifiedmethodology for calculating the monetary value of all ecological products It serves as a key indicator for assessing ecosystems' contribution to economic and social development. The standard details the technical processes, indicator and method Designed to be scientific, systematic and practical, the standard offerswhole-process technical guidance to standardize these valuations, Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any indivi