Morning Insight: January 14, 2026
Morning Insight:January 14, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Tin:Tin prices have surged sharply in recent days, breaking above theprevious historical high of RMB 395,000/ton reached in 2021 during lastnight’s session. We believe the recent rally has clear underlyingdrivers: supply has remained persistently tight, with Myanmar’sproduction recovery failing to scale up, Indonesia seeing weak exportsearly in the year due to quota issues, and African regions such as theDRC facing potential output reductions amid rebel conflicts; meanwhile,domestic“invisible”inventories of both tin concentrate and refined tinare relatively depleted, and despite prices already reaching recordhighs, inventory accumulation has fallen short of expectations, with evensigns of destocking, leaving overall stocks only around the mid-range ofhistorical levels; in addition, the pass-through of high tin prices todownstream sectors has been relatively smooth, as tin’s end-useapplications are fragmented and end demand is not highly price-sensitive,resulting in relatively limited resistance onthe upside. Looking ahead,we believe prices still have room to rise, with RMB 400,000/ton havingbeen reached as our first target, and the next target expected to bearound RMB 450,000/ton. Crude oil:There may still be upside rebound room of USD 2–4 per barrel.Geopolitical risks have intensified recently, with the situation in Irandeteriorating rapidly, and based on current developments it has not yetreached its most severe stage, leaving room for further escalation. Although the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz remainslow, the crude oil market’s lingering memory of geopolitical risks maycontinue to embed an emotional risk premium into current prices. Inaddition, recent micro-level trading activity in the physical crudemarket has been relatively strong, with India actively increasingpurchases, which in the short term may continue to resonate withgeopolitical factors and support strength in both domestic and overseasoil prices. From a medium-to long-term perspective, however, we maintainthe view outlined in our annual outlook that downside pressure on oilprices remains significant in the first half of the year, with thepotential to set new lows and test the USD 50 per barrel level. Recently,inventories at the Cushing delivery hub in the United States havecontinued to rise, which may also put pressure on the front-month timespreads and constrain the upside potential of any sustained oil pricerally. On the domestic front, the recent appreciation of the renminbi andthe decline in freight rates have caused SC crude to underperformoverseas benchmarks, while the previously strong EFS spread may alsoreverse going forward as freight rates continue to fall. Offset paper:With warehouse receipt tensions easing, the short-termoutlook is choppy but biased to the downside. Recently, double offsetpaper futures prices have retreated notably, which we believe is mainlydue to the continuous increase in the number of warehouse receipts, withnewly registered receipts largely consisting of higher-priced brands thatcarry a premium in the spot market. This also implies greater potentialfor other paper mills to register warehouse receipts, suggesting that themarket had previouslybeen in an overvalued state. From the currentperspective, the short-term view is predominantly bearish, with the corelogic being downward valuation correction and a lack of fundamentalbullish catalysts. Downside price anchoring focuses on two aspects:first, if the March–May spread widens to around-70 to-80, arbitragetrades involving taking delivery of warehouse receipts through futures– spot positive carry may emerge, signaling the end of weak-reality-driventrading and a potential phase-bottom for the March contract; second, ifabsolute prices fall to sufficiently low levels, they may attractindustry participants to step in and take positions, which can bereferenced against the previous lows plus holding costs, with meaningfulsupport likely only to emerge around 4,050. From a slightly longer-termperspective, the trading logic will still need to be fundamentallydriven, as double offset paper capacity remains relatively excessive inthe first half of 2026, demand is unlikely to see a clear recovery, andthe probability of sustained price improvement is low. Prices are morelikely to decline during an upstream destocking cycle, with selling intorallies remaining the primary strategy. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. South China's Shenzhen City on Tuesday completed its first-everelectric vehicle (EV) fee settlement for discharging electricity back tothe grid, marking a milestone in vehicle-to-grid (V
