早晨洞察：2026年1月13日

Morning Insight:January 13, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium carbonate:Adjustments to export tax rebate policies havetriggered a rush in export demand, lending short-term strength to prices.On January 9, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice clarifying thatfrom April 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate forbattery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, with plans to fully recommended in the April contract. Expectations of a“rush to export”driven by adjustments to export tax rebate policies have supported arebound in the futures market. On the supply side, capacity deploymentaround the 2026 Lunar New Year is key: Chinese New Year’s Day in 2026falls on February 17, corresponding to Week 8 (with Week 0 defined asWeek 8), and average capacity before the holiday (Week −1 to Week −5),during the holiday (Week 0 to Week 2), and after the holiday (Week 3 toWeek 5) is estimated at 313,000, 221,000, and 307,000 TEU per week, Propylene:Driven by multiple positive factors, there remains room forfurther upside. Recently, both futures and spot propylene prices haverisen in tandem. On the supply side, first, several PDH units areexpected to undergo concentrated maintenance, with operatingrates inFebruary projected to fall sharply to around 65%; second, against the Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's top economic planner on Monday released a trial regulation The move is intended to better leverage these funds to serve national Issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the regulation highlights the role of allocation evaluations in guidinggovernment investment funds to align with national industrial policies It also calls for stronger coordination between national-level funds andlocal government funds to support major national strategies, key sectors The regulation sets out evaluation criteria focusing on funds'performance in supporting national strategies such as new quality Additional indicators assess alignment with the country's regional The NDRC said final evaluation results will be communicated toprovincial-level governments, relevant departments, evaluated entities 2. China will move faster to establish a data property rightsregistration system, as part of the efforts to promote the use of data The NDA said it will draw on the experience of registration systems inother fields, actively solicit opinions from various sectors, and Liu Liehong, head of the NDA, chaired a symposium on data property rightsregistration recently. Participants from the Beijing Internet Court and 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strengthened 20 pips to 7.0108 against the U.S. dollar Monday, according Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must