早晨洞察：2026年6月15日

Morning Insight:June 15, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Crude Oil:Following the formal signing of the US-Iran memorandum ofunderstanding early Monday morning, the market has continued to price in Our view remains that the realization of resumed navigation would largelymark the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil Importantly, the agreement is fundamentally a phased frameworkarrangement rather than a comprehensive resolution of the underlyingdisputes. Core issues, including Iran's nuclear program and control over However, while the market appears to have largely priced in the reopeningof the Strait itself, it may still underestimate the time required for months, while the restoration of upstream production capacity couldrequire more than three months. In other words, the resumption of In the near term, the release of floating storage and onshore inventoriesis likely to weigh on front-month prices. Nevertheless, the global oil Accordingly, we maintain our view that Brent crude is likely to trade inthe USD 85-90/bbl range during the third quarter. From a strategic Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's yuan-denominated loans rose by 9.11 trillion yuan (about 1.34trillion U.S. dollars) in the first five months of 2026, central bank At the end of May, outstanding yuan loans stood at 281.02 trillion yuan,up 5.5 percent year on year, according to the People's Bank of China. trillion yuan by the end of last month. The M1, which covers cash in circulation, demand deposits and clientreserves of non-bank payment institutions, reached 114.89 trillion yuan Aggregate financing for the real economy amounted to 17.48 trillion yuan Yuan deposits rose by 15.77 trillion yuan during this five-month period,with outstanding yuan deposits increasing 8.7 percent year on year to China will continue to apply an appropriately accommodative monetary 2. China reached a historic climate milestone in 2025 as its additionalrenewable energy entirely covered the country's growing power needs. This Newly installed renewable power generation capacity in China reachedanother record high last year, accounting for more than 60 percent of The report projected that China would add around 300 gigawatts of newwind and solar power capacity in 2026, with renewables continuing to China's installed renewable energy capacity surpassed 2,337 gigawatts in2025, and renewables accounted for 82.7 percent of newly installed power Newly installed distributed solar photovoltaic capacity exceeded 100gigawatts for the second straight year, accompanied by marked improvement China's electricity generation from renewable sources reached about 4trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, exceeding the combined power consumption 3. China's railway fixed-asset investment rose 2.6 percent year on yearin the first five months of 2026, as the country continued to advance Fixed-asset investment in the sector totaled 248.5 billion yuan (about In 2025, China reported railway fixed-asset investment of 901.5 billionyuan and put into operation 3,109 km of new rail lines, including 2,862 A company official said a number of key railway projects have madesubstantial progress this year, with planning and construction moving China has built the world's largest high-speed rail network. By the endof 2025, the country's total operating railway mileage had reached National railway operating mileage is expected to reach 180,000 km by2030, including about 60,000 km of high-speed rail, according to the Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The