早晨洞察：2026年6月2日

Morning Insight:June 2, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Ferrous Metals:From a medium-to long-term perspective, the inflectionpoint for ferrous commodity prices may have already emerged, andinvestors should begin paying attention to opportunities to establishlong positions on price weakness. The previous bearish narrativehas beenlargely priced in by the market, as years of demand-side weakness andnegative feedback have pushed ferrous commodities into a deeplyundervalued range, with prices approaching production cost levels. Asproperty sales improve, housing prices stabilize, and inventoriescontinue to decline, market expectations have gradually become moreconstructive. At the same time, rising industrial producer prices andexpanding corporate profits may encourage the manufacturing sector toenter a restocking cycle,supporting a recovery in steel demand. As aresult, market pricing is gradually shifting from weak spot-marketrealities toward stronger forward-looking expectations. From a shorter-term perspective, the relative strength hierarchy acrossthe ferrous complex is expected to be coking coal > steel > iron ore.Coking coal prices remain relatively strong, supported by productiondisruptions following the coal mine accident in Changzhi and tightersafety inspections across other producing regions, which have temporarilytightened supply. Steel demand is entering a seasonal slowdown, whileimproved profitability is encouraging mills to resume production,creating pressure on the supply-demand balance. Nevertheless, steelprices continue to receive support from elevated production costs. Ironore fundamentals remain the weakest within the ferrous chain. As hot metal production approaches its peak and begins to decline while supplycontinues to recover, iron ore inventories are likely to startaccumulating from elevated levels, leaving prices under continuedpressure. Containerized Freight Index (Europe Route):Consider selectively reducinglong positions in the July contract and maintaining a light-position,wait-and-see approach. China’s export demand has exceeded expectations in 2026, and the currentreality of severe capacity tightness on the Europe route, combined withbroadly supportive fundamentals across major shipping lanes, suggeststhat the upward trend has not yet concluded. The market’s key supportlevel has been revised higher from 3,100 to 3,300 points, while furtherupside will largely depend on whether carriers can redeploy excessvessels from other routes to fill currently unassigned sailings in July.Potential bullish catalysts include another round of freight rateincreases for early July shipments, with the key observation windowfalling in the second week of June. Downside risks include: (1) a largenumber of currently unassigned sailings being filled or the introductionof extra-loader vessels, and (2) a material slowdown in actual cargoshipments. In addition, some long-term contracts will only begin imposingfuel surcharges from the third quarter onward, creating incentives forshippers to bring forward July–August cargo volumes into the May–Julyperiod. Against the backdrop of potentially front-loaded peak-season demand andrising macroeconomic downside risks, contracts from August 2026 onwardare increasingly viewed through a sell-on-rallies framework. It is worthnoting that some investors have alreadybegun establishing shortpositions in deferred contracts based on elevated valuations. However,given that spot freight rates have yet to show a clear inflection point,such positioning may not yet translate into a sustained downward trend.For the October 2026 contract, the key resistance zone is expected to lie between 2,100 and 2,350 points. From a trading perspective, investors may consider gradually reducingJuly long positions within the 3,800–4,200 point range and maintaining arelatively light overall exposure. Should prices retrace toward the3,300-point area, selective re-entry on the long side may be warranted.For the October contract, patience is advised, with short exposure betterestablished after a confirmed end to the current upward trend. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's flagship services trade fair will add a dedicated area thisyear for companies seeking support in expanding overseas, Beijingauthorities said on Monday. The 2026 China International Fair for Trade in Services, or CIFTIS, willfor the first time set up a promotion and roadshow zone for overseas-expansion services, bringing together providers in finance, law,accounting, intellectual property, advertising and human resources.The zone will offer roadshow presentations, professional consulting andspace for business talks, according to a press conference held inBe