清晨洞察：2026年2月2日

Morning Insight:February 2, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium Carbonate:Both fundamentals and market expectations remainrelatively strong, with limited downside space for prices. On the onehand, short-term supply–demand conditions are tight and the spot marketremains resilient. Last week, SMM-reported industry inventories fell by1,414 tonnes, with the scale of destocking exceeding market expectations; PVC:Sentiment is relatively strong, but fundamentals have not shown aclear improvement. In the short term, PVC prices are supported by factorssuch as front-loaded export demand, the Minamata Convention, equitymarket fund inflows, and expectations of future production cuts, leading Overall, on a 2026 horizon, the magnitude of supply-side reductionsduring the peak maintenance season could exceed expectations, which would Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's State Taxation Administration (STA) said Sunday it hasreleased an announcement to adjust and improve export tax rebate The announcement integrates various export tax rebate and exemptionregulations issued at different times into a unified set of The new measures optimize rebate and exemption procedures and leverage For the vast majority of enterprises, the announcement will notsignificantly change their existing declaration practices, enabling a 2. China's shipbuilding industry maintained the world's largest marketshare in terms of three major indicators for the 16th consecutive year in The country's shipbuilding output reached 53.69 million deadweight tonnes New orders reached 107.82 million DWT last year, representing a 69 As of the end of December 2025, the sector's holding orders stood at274.42 million DWT, up 31.5 percent from the previous year. This volume 3. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's non-manufacturingsector slipped to 49.4 in January, down 0.8 percentage points from the The services sector saw a modest slowdown in January, with its businessactivity index edging down 0.2 percentage points to 49.5. However, In contrast, the real estate sector continued to struggle, with its Despite these softer readings, sentiment among service-sector firmsimproved in January. The index tracking expectations for business Expectations in this sector also turned cautious, with the constructionbusiness activity outlook index falling below the 50 threshold to 49.8, Saturday's data also revealed that the PMI for China's manufacturing The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sectorstood at 49.3 in January, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are owne