清晨洞察：2026年1月21日

Morning Insight:January 21, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Coking coal and coke:The combination of industry fundamentals andcapital flows points to a weaker bias in the short term, while the depthof the medium-term downside still needs to be validated. Recent marketvolatility has mainly been driven by three factors. First, thefermentation of steel mill–related events has weakened expectations for from the spot market remains important to watch. At the same time,caution is still warranted regarding the risk of renewed“black swan”disruptions similar to those seen after the New Year’s holiday. As this Treasuryfutures:Global risk appetite has retreated on a phased basis,and attention should be paid to opportunities for compression in the CGB30–10 spread. Recently, global risk appetite has come under pressure fromfactors including developments in Japanese government bonds, U.S.–Europeissues related to Greenland, and the continuation of the Russia–Ukraine Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. By 2030, China aims to cut water consumption per 10,000 yuan (1,428U.S. dollars) of GDP and per 10,000 yuan of industrial output by more A senior official noted that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), efforts will focus on high-quality water conservancy development Key goals for the end of 2030 include raising the effective utilizationcoefficient of farmland irrigation water to over 0.6, expanding the scale For water-scarce or overloaded regions, the reuse rate of reclaimed water In 2026, water conservancy authorities at all levels will enhance overallwater resource management, improve conservation systems, and promote the 2. Driven by China's consumer goods trade-in policy, domestic retailsales of home appliances and communication equipment both surpassed 1 In 2025, retail sales of home appliances neared 1.17 trillion yuan, andthose of communication devices approached 1.01 trillion yuan, according A total of 91 million digital products and over 129 million home program in 2025, data from the commerce ministry has revealed. Retailsales of home appliances and audio devices rose 11 percent, and those of The trade-in initiative has facilitated China's industrial upgrading andgreen transition. Of all home appliances traded in last year, products Over 177,800 new types of home appliance products across 12 categorieswere introduced in 2025 as enterprises leveraged advanced technologies, The policy has also significantly optimized the domestic consumptionstructure. Mid-to-high-end smartphones accounted for 72.5 percent of all China began implementing the consumer goods trade-in program in 2024. In2025, over 360 million applications were filed for consumer goods trade- 3. Chinese authorities on Tuesday announced an extension of tax and feeincentives for entities that provide community-focused or family-oriented Key support measures, which will be extended to the end of 2027, includea value-added tax exemption for income from elderly care, childcare and land used for such services, and waivers for fees such as those The continued support for these sectors, which is expected to lower theoperational costs of enterprises engaged in community-focused care Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in th