清晨洞察：2026年1月16日

Morning Insight:January 16, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Treasury Futures:On January 15, the People’s Bank of China announced a25 bp cut to the interest rates on various structural monetary policyinstruments, with the one-year relending rate lowered to 1.25% and ratesfor other tenors adjusted accordingly. Vice Governor Zou Lan stated thatthere remains room this year for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and agreement, overall export pressure in 2026 appears limited, and thestronger-than-expected December export data released yesterday furthersuggest that the risk of a sharp near-term cooling in exports is low,reducing the necessity of proactively weakeningthe currency via acomprehensive rate cut to stimulate exports. Structural rate cuts canmore precisely support weak links in the real economy and guide fundstoward key areas such as technological innovation and the green economy, for hedging and maintaining bullish calendar spread and positive carry Rapeseed oil:Rapeseed oil rebounded sharply from recent lows, driven bypositive expectations surrounding US biodiesel policy. Media reportsindicate that the Trump administration is advancing biofuel policydiscussions and is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable VolumeObligations (RVOs) by early March, while also potentially refraining from PX:Valuation has pulled back in line with the cost side and is nowrelatively neutral; attention should be paid to the strength ofdownstream restocking, and a long PX/short PTA hedging position is overseas processing-margin hedging positions have entered the market, anddomestic PX producers have increased hedging positions, with domesticoperating rates rising to 89.6% (+1.3%), currently with only Sinochem Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China will continue to exempt overseas institutions from payingcorporate income tax and value-added tax on bond interest income gained The policy will be effective from Jan. 1, 2026 to Dec. 31, 2027,according to a joint statement released by the two government The move aims to further promote the opening up of the country's bond 2. China's yuan-denominated loans rose by 16.27 trillion yuan (about 2.32trillion U.S. dollars) last year, central bank data showed on Thursday. Outstanding yuan loans stood at 271.91 trillion yuan at the end of The M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulationand all deposits, increased by 8.5 percent year on year to reach 340.29 The M1, which covers cash in circulation, demand deposits and clientreserves of non-bank payment institutions, totaled 115.51 trillion yuan Yuan deposits rose by 26.41 trillion yuan in 2025, with household Based on preliminary statistics, aggregate financing to the real economy Outstanding aggregate financing to the real economy stood at 442.12 trillion yuan at the end of 2025, registering year-on-year growth of 8.3 3. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a cut in interest rates onall structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual pe