清晨洞察：2025年7月2日

Morning Insight:July 2, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Caustic Soda:Spot Price Decline Not Yet Over, But Watch for ChlorineImpact Spot prices for caustic soda continue to decline, mainly due to ongoingreductions in procurement prices from alumina producers in Shandong. Withexpectations of lower prices, downstream buyers and traders havesignificantly reduced restocking activity, intensifying negative marketfeedback. At the same time, rapid spot price drops have increasedpressure on long positions in near-month futures, and the logic of near-month premium compensation is no longer sufficient to support the market.However, the bearish momentum has shown clear signs of slowing recently.The key reason is the faster-than-expected decline in liquid chlorineprices. This raises the possibility that caustic soda producers may beforced to cut output due to liquid chlorine-related disruptions. On the fundamentals, caustic soda maintenance-related capacity reductionsin July are notably smaller than in June, with most outages occurring inNorthwest and East China. Plants in Shandong that were under maintenanceearlier are gradually resuming operations. Additionally, new capacityadditions in June–July may total as much as 1.1 million tonnes,indicating continued supply-side pressure. On the demand side, non-alumina demand remains weak, and aluminaproducers hold relatively high caustic soda inventories. However, exportdemand offers some support, with buyers showing stronger willingness torestock at low prices. On the cost side, although electricity prices are still falling in July, the sharp decline in liquid chlorine haseffectively pushed up the cost of caustic soda production. In summary, while spot price declines for caustic soda are not yet over,the cost-push effect of falling chlorine prices may lead to valuationrecovery in forward-month contracts. However, the scope for a sustainedrebound remains limited. Going forward, the key focus will be on thetransmission effect of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. Ifsubstantial output cuts or rate reductions materialize, a more bullishstance would be justified. Container Shipping Index (Europe Route):Price Decline Delayed, August toConsolidate; Sell October Contract on RalliesMaersk’s freight rates for the third week of July largely remainunchanged, which is better than market expectations. The AUG 2025contract, which had previously priced in significant rate declineexpectations, saw a slight narrowing of its discount.From a fundamentals perspective, average weekly shipping capacity forlate July is projected at 308,000 TEU/week, up 20,000 TEU/week from earlyJuly's 288,000 TEU/week. Capacity from the OA and Gemini alliancesremains stable, with the main increase comingfrom the PA alliance andMSC. Since Maersk has kept its Week 29 opening rates unchanged, it isexpected that other carriers will mostly follow suit in late July, withsome tactical offline rate adjustments for specific ports or voyages.Looking ahead to August, the OA alliance may continue "rate hike"guidance. However, with average weekly capacity rising to 329,000 TEU inearly August and potential demand softening, the likelihood of thesehikes materializing is low. Their main effect would likely be tostimulate shipments and ease early August freight rate pressure.The current market debate centers on the pace and posture of freight ratedecline in August. The AUG 2025 contract is likely to follow a delivery-driven logic going forward. Watch for possible delays in sailing schedules due to congestion at European ports, which may cushion the fallin the SCFIS index. Overall, the AUG 2025 contract is expected to move in a narrow range,offering limited value for directional trading. Strategically, shortpositions in the OCT 2025 contract can be considered on rallies, withresistance around the 1,500-point level. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has recently granted atotal of 3.08 billion U.S. dollars in investment quotas to eligibleQualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) to meet the demand foroverseas asset allocation, it said Monday. The move aims to further support QDII institutions in conducting cross-border investment activities in compliance with laws and regulations.Under the premise of effectively preventing risks, it seeks to meet thereasonable overseas investment demands of domestic residents, theadministration said. The QDII program is a key institutional arrangement for China's financialmarket opening. It allows eligible domestic financial institutions toremit both RMB and foreign currencies abroad within specified quotas toinvest in overseas financial marke