早上洞察：2026年1月6日

Morning Insight:January 6, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium carbonate:Strengthening expectations for improved demand arepushing the price center higher. On the demand side, support mainly comesfrom two aspects. First, continued policy support has reinforced marketconfidence in medium-to long-term demand. China’s new energy vehicletrade-in policy has been extended, with subsidies of 12% of vehicle price(capped at RMB 20,000) for scrappage replacements and 8% (capped at RMB phase, with downside support from low-price restocking and strongexpectations, while upside potential will depend mainly on the Caustic soda:It is not advisable to chase the downside. Around the NewYear holiday, the caustic soda 2601 contract fell sharply, mainly due tothe large number of warrants in the January contract and continuousdeclines in spot prices, which increased delivery pressure on longs.Pressure from the near-month contract also dragged down other causticsoda contracts after the holiday. However, from a delivery perspective, United States, as its relatively large capacity could have some impact on Synthetic rubber:In the short term, butadiene and BR are likely toremain relatively strong, though upside space is gradually narrowing.This is mainly driven by two factors. First, as the NR–BR price spreadpreviously widened to elevated levels, spot trading activity across thesynthetic rubber value chain has continued to improve, supporting Aluminum:Ahead of the holiday, aluminum once led gains within thetraditional base metals complex, and LME prices also closed higher duringChina’s New Year holiday. On the first trading day after the holiday, discounts, and market expectations are that the basis is close tobottoming out. If equity markets begin pricing in a“spring rally”inthe first quarter, renewed equity–futures linkage and capital flows Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China State Railway Group Co., Ltd. (China Railway) said Monday thatits annual transport revenue reached 1.0204 trillion yuan (about 145 The national railway operator credited the results to tighter budgetdiscipline and improved cost control, which led to budget savings of 19.7 The company also strengthened its financial position, reducing its debt-to-asset ratio by 1 percentage point to 62.5 percent by the end of 2025. 2. The Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in east China's Zhejiang Province saw itscargo throughput surpass 1.4 billion tonnes in 2025, ranking first The port's capacity was significantly boosted by the robust performance of its two major container terminals and transfer terminal, the port said Notably, the Tiaozhoumen Channel, the port's second 300,000-tonne deep- As a key hub of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, the Ningbo-ZhoushanPort has continued to expand its global reach. By the end of 2025, the Zhejiang, an economic powerhouse on China's eastern coast, has in recentyears rolled out an action plan to enhance the competitiveness and global 3. China on Monday released a nationwide action plan aimed at promotinggreen consumption, forming part of the country's broader efforts to The plan, jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce and eight othergovernment departments, outlines 20 policy measures across seven key The initiative seeks to broaden the adoption of green consumptionbehaviors, and speed up the transition toward low-carbon production and The plan prioritizes improving quality supply in essential livelihood-related sectors, calling for increased availability of green agricultural It also promotes greener vehicle consumption by incentivizing thepurchase of new energy vehicles and strengthening the automotive industry camping, drive-in cinema experiences and road travel.The plan also aims to upgrade green service consumption by promotinggreen catering, accommodation and household services. Monthly Report on Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is der