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固定收益每日市场更新

2025-11-27 高志和,吴蒨莹,张钰婧 招银国际 Aaron
报告封面

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 The new HUANEN 4.15 Perp was 0.1pt higher from RO at par this morning,and the new ORIEAS 28 was largely unchanged from RO at T+88. ChineseIG benchmarks widened 2-4bps. VNKRLE 27-29s plunged another 13.1-16pts on maturity extension for onshore bond.Chinese SOE properties like Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk Bank Capital Papers:Asian AT1 & T2 offer higher return predictability. Seebelow. SMCGL:IPT at 8.125% for the new SMCGL Perp to be roughly fair. Seebelow. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点  Yesterday,PBs were switching from 3-6yr Asian corps/subs FRNs to 2-3yrsenior Chinese financial FRNs. There were selling flows in AU/NZ/SEA/MEfinancial IG names, while KR/JP IG spaces stabilized. We saw RMsbuyingAMC perps, while AMs selling BNKEA T2s. EHICAR 26-27s were unchangedto 0.2pt higher. The NWDEVL complex was 0.6pt lower to 0.3pt higher.WESCHI 26 was 0.1pt lower, and the new WESCHI 28 traded 0.4-0.8pt lowerfrom RO at 99.115. See our comments onWESCHI 28 on25 Nov’25. InChinese properties, VNKRLE 27-29s dropped another 3.8-4.1pts post thedebt restructuring rumor. Last night, Vanke surprised the market by callingfor a bondholders’ meeting to extend the maturity of 22 VANKE MTN004 (o/sRMB2bn) due 15 Dec’25.The details ofproposed resolutions for thebondholders’ meeting will be out on 1 Dec’25 and the meeting will be on 10Dec’25.GRNCH 28 and CNH ZHHFGR28lowered 0.5-0.8pt. FUTLAN28/FTLNHD 26 were also down by 0.3-1.1pts, while FTLNHD 27 was 0.4pthigher. LNGFOR 27-32s were unchanged to 0.2pt higher. Media report that Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.69%), Dow (+0.67%) and Nasdaq (+0.82%) were higher onWednesday. US Initial JoblessClaims was +216k, lower than the market expectation of +226k. US Crude Oil Inventories was +2.774mn, higherthan the market expectation of-1.3mn.Nov’25 Chicago PMI was 36.3, lower than the market expectation of44.3. US Sep’25 Durable Goods Orders was +0.5% mom, which was in line with the market expectation. 2/5yr Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 Bank Capital Papers: Opportunities in AT1 and T2 Asian AT1 & T2 offer higher return predictability In Asian AT1 space, we maintain buy on NOMURA 7 Perp. At the same time, we initiate buy on BBNIIJ 4.3Perp which, in our view, offers good relative value in the space. In Asian T2 space, we maintain buy on BBLTB3.466 09/23/36, BBLTB 6.056 03/25/40, CHIYBK 5.75 04/07/32 and KBANK 3.343 10/02/31 on more appealing On the other hand, we changed recommendations on CHIYBK 8 Perp, KBANK4 Perp, SHINFN 2.875 Perp,and WSTP 5 Perp to neutral from buy. The changes are more of valuation considerations instead of concerns Aswe have been arguing, capital papers of European banks offer better YTC but capital papers of Asian banksoffer more predictable return through higher certainty of call and coupon distributions. Overall, we believe thatour Asian AT1 and T2 picks offer more attractive yield and high predictability of return, given the issuers’ solidcapital adequacy, stable dividend policy, as well as track records of call on the first call dates and payments ofscheduled distributions. The return predictability is even higher for T2s as they are more senior in the capital Clickherefor the full report. SMCGL:IPT at 8.125% for the new SMCGL Perp to be roughly fair San Miguel Global Power (SMCGL) proposes to issue new USD NC5.25Perp to fund the exchange and tenderoffers at par for SMCGL 5.7 Perp ofUSD300.423mn. We view the FV of the new SMCGL Perp at c8.3% vs theminimum new issue initial distribution rate of 8.125%, in view of its SMCGL 8.95 Perp (first coupon reset inJul’30) is trading at yield to next reset of 8.0% and adjusted for 9months longer to first coupon reset. Thecoupon of the new SMCGL Perp will be reset to 5yrUST+initial spread+250bps step-up margin on the coupon Holders may split their total holdings into separate portions and apply either exchange offer or tender offer toeach specific portion. SMCGL will accept all tendered for exchange, while the maximum acceptance amount ofthetender offer is up to the net proceeds of the new USD Perp. Offers will expire on 28 Nov’25 4pm GMT. SMCGLwill use the net proceeds forthe cost and expenses related to the concurrent exchange and tenderoffer, redemption of all remaining outstanding SMCGL 5.7 Perp not tendered, and new perp issuance cost.SMCGL may apply the remaining net proceeds, if any, for pre-development costs of solar and hydropower planned coal-fired power assets and/or liquefied natural gas assets (including, but not limited to, their The exchange and tender offers demonstrated again that SMCGL has been able to actively manage therefinancing of its perps before the first coupon reset date to avoid high coupon step-up, thanks partly to thecompany’s good access to onshoreand offshore funding channels. Recall