固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 This morning, the new BCHINA Float 30 tightened 3bps from pricing atSOFR+49. Asia IG space was overall unchanged to 3bps wider. We sawbetter selling on JP IG and the recent USD MEITUA 31-35s. Perps and AT1swere generally down by 0.1-0.3pt. VNKRLE 27-29s were 0.2-0.5pt higherafter yesterday’s plunge. Oct’25 Macau GGR was the highest since Oct'19.See below. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk CDBFLC:FV of the new CDBALF 35 (T2) to be T+110bps vs IPT ofT+140bps. See below. QBEAU:FV of the new QBEAU 37 (T2) to be T+135-140bps vs IPT ofT+170bps. See below. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,there were two-way flows on the recent USD MEITUA 31-35samong PBs and funds. We saw better buying on the new HSBC 31-36s andHSBC FRN 31. NWD launched the exchange offers for its perps and bonds.NWDEVL Perps rose 1.4-4.3pts, with the exception of NWDEVL 10.131PERP, which lowered 2pts. NWDEVL 27-31s were 0.1-0.7pt higher. Seecomments on NWDEVL’s exchangeoffersyesterday.LASUDE 26 gained0.4pt, while HYSAN Perps/HYSAN 27-35s were 0.1-0.5pt lower. In Macaugaming, SJMHOL 26-28s/MGMCHI 26-31s/MPEL 27-32s/STCITY 28-29swere unchanged to 0.3pt higher, while SANLTD 27-31s/WYNMAC 27-34swere 0.2pt lower to 0.1pt higher. See comments on 10M25 Macau gamingbelow. Chinese properties underperformed. VNKRLE 27-29s plunged 11pts,after SZ Metro effectively introduced the cap on shareholder’s loans to Vankewith a headroom of cRMB2.3bn. See commentsyesterday.GRNLGR 30dropped 8.2pts, and LNGFOR 27-32s/FTLNHD 26-27s/FUTLAN 28 were0.4-1.6pts lower. In KR space, we saw better selling on HYNMTR 26-29swhile two-way flows on HYNMTR 30-31s. In JP space, we saw better sellingon NORBKs, better buying on MUFGs/NOMURAs, while two-way flows onMITCOs from PBs. In SEA space, the BBLTB curve widened 1-2bps amidbetter-selling flows across senior and sub papers. SMCGL Perps wereunchanged to 0.2pt lower. VEDLN belly-to-long-end bonds were 0.1-0.4pthigher. Vedanta 1HFY26 consolidated EBITDA rose 8.3% yoy to INR223.6bn(cUSD2.5bn). Yankee AT1s were slightly softer amid mixed light two-wayflows from retail investors. In LGFV space, we saw better-selling on Henan names following last week'schatters over one offshore364-day paper from the region. Flows in the restof the space were skewed to small better selling in both CNH and USD issues.small better selling across the credit curve, in both CNH and USD issues. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.17%), Dow (-0.48%) and Nasdaq (+0.46%) were mixed on Monday.US Oct’25 S&P GlobalManufacturing PMI was 52.5, higher than the market expectation of 52.2. US Oct’25 ISM ManufacturingPMI/Prices was 48.7/58.0, lower than the market expectation of 49.4/62.4, respectively. UST yield was higher onMonday. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.60%/3.72%/4.13%/4.69%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 Macau gaming:Oct’25 GGR was the highest since Oct'19 In Oct’25, the gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau increased 15.9% yoy to MOP24.1bn.Themonthlyincrease was an upside surprise given the slow golden week and only 6% yoy increase in GGR in Sep’25. TheSep’25 GGR figure was somewhat affected by the shut down for 33-hour casino shutdown when SuperTyphoon Ragasa passed through on 24-25 Sep.The Oct’25 figure is the highest monthly GGR since Oct’19,reflecting sustainable recovery in visitations, as well as recovery in mass market and VIP/premium massmarkets after the COVID lockdown. Cumulatively, the GGR for the 10M25 was MOP205.4bn, equivalent to 83.3% of pre-COVID level in 2019. Theyoy GGR growth in 10M25 widened to 8% from 7.1% in 9M25.Taking cues from the current run-rate andexpectation of tourist arrivals in Macau to increase 11.5% to 38.95mn in 2025, we expect the full-year GGRgrowth in 2025 to be over MOP240bn. As discussed before, we consider Macau gaming bonds lower-beta and good carry plays with improving creditstories despite we should expect new supply to come given the refinancing requirements with the scheduledmaturities and undemanding funding costs. Our top picks of sector remain MPELs and STCITYs in view of the improving market shares and growing adj. EBITDA of Melco and Studio City, as well as the more appealingrisk-return profiles of MPELs/STCITYs. We also consider WYNMAC’27 and ‘29 yield pick-up plays, trading atpremium of 30-50bps over bonds of its US parent. We are neutral on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOLs onvaluation. CDBFLC:FV of the new CDBALF 35 (T2) to be T+110bps vs IPT of T+140bps China Development Bank Financial Leasing (CDBL) proposes to issue a USD 10NC5 Reg S T2 bond (Fitch:BBB+). We view the FV of the new CDBFLC 35 to be T+110bps vs IPT at T+140bps, in view of CDBALF 4 ¾05/27/30 trading at T+61bps/YTW of 4.3%, adjusted for subordination, longer tenor but more solid issuingstructure (issued